SPY Trends and Influencers August 9, 2025

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on August 9th, 2025

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw heading into another big week in earnings season, that equity markets looked rattled following a 2 day move lower. Elsewhere, looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue to consolidate in its uptrend while Crude Oil ($USO) drifted in consolidation. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) continued the intermediate term move to the downside near 3 year lows while US Treasuries ($TLT) continued to consolidate in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to consolidate the move to the top of the broad consolidation area while Emerging Markets ($EEM) saw their short term uptrend threatened.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue to rise just above normal levels making life more difficult for equity markets to the upside and threatening a pullback. The charts of the $SPY and $QQQ were breaking their short term moving averages for the first time since late April and looked ripe for more downside. The $IWM was slightly weaker as it dropped below its 50 day SMA.

The week played out with Gold moving higher in consolidation while Crude Oil moved lower in its range. The US Dollar worked lower in the downtrend while Treasuries met resistance in their consolidation and fell back. The Shanghai Composite continued higher to 3½ year highs while Emerging Markets stalled as they approach the July highs.

Volatility ticked back down erasing most of last week’s spike. This released some of the pressure on equities and they rose on the week. This resulted in the QQQ printing a new all-time high Thursday and then it and the SPY doing it again Friday. The IWM rose early but met resistance midweek, keeping it in the long term channel. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week below the 20 day SMA for the first time in over a month. It clearly was not comfortable there as it gapped higher Monday and ran to close back over the 20 day SMA. Another brief dip below Tuesday and then it moved higher the rest of the week. Friday saw it close at a new all-time high, erasing last week’s FOMC scare. The RSI is rising up from the midline in the bullish zone with the MACD falling and positive but leveling.

The weekly chart shows a near Marubozu bullish candle on the week. The RSI is leveling at what would be a lower high in the bullish zone with the MACD positive and rising. There is support lower at 629 and 626 followed by 624 and 620 then 615 and 613. There is no resistance above 640. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

Heading into August options expiration and the tail end of earnings season, equity markets look refreshed and stronger following the 2 day move lower to end last week. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue to rise in consolidation in its uptrend while Crude Oil drifts in consolidation. The US Dollar Index continues the intermediate term move to the downside near 3 year lows while US Treasuries continue to consolidate in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the rise to the top of the broad consolidation area while Emerging Markets continue their short term uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks to return to normal levels making life easier for equity markets to the upside in search of new highs. The charts of the SPY and QQQ are breaking to new all-time highs and look strong on both timeframes after a momentum reset on the pullback. The IWM is slightly weaker as it struggles to clear the 20 day SMA. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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