SPY Trends and Influencers August 30, 2025

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on August 30th, 2025

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw with one week left in August and the Jackson Hole Fed Conference in the rearview mirror, equity markets finished strong after a continued slosh to the downside early. Elsewhere, looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue toward the top of consolidation in its uptrend while Crude Oil ($USO) drifted in consolidation. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) continued to base in the intermediate term move to the downside while US Treasuries ($TLT) continued to consolidate in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue a new uptrend after breaking the broad consolidation area while Emerging Markets ($EEM) continued their uptrend.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue at low levels making life easier for equity markets to the upside. The charts of the $SPY and $QQQ continued to look strong on both timeframes, with the SPY closing at a new all-time high. The QQQ had one more plateau to clear to join the SPY and even the $IWM was jumping after clearing resistance to finish at an 8 month high.

The week played out with Gold continuing toward the top of the 4½ month range while Crude Oil drifted in a tight range near a key level. The US Dollar dropped to the bottom of the August range while Treasuries remained in consolidation in the middle of the recent range. The Shanghai Composite finally met resistance after a 5 month run and stalled while Emerging Markets pulled back to support.

Volatility remained in a tight range at low levels with a slight uptick to end the week. This allowed equities to move higher but without a major catalyst they did so with a drift. This resulted in the SPY printing a new all-time high Thursday and then it, the QQQ and the IWM saw some profit taking Friday. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week with a reversal higher following the speech from Chairman Powell last Friday and at a new all-time high close. It gave back a fraction Monday and then started higher Tuesday. Wednesday it printed a new all-time high and followed that up with another Thursday before profit taking Friday. The RSI is holding in the bullish zone with the MACD flat and positive.

The weekly chart shows another small body candle, a possible reversal if confirmed next week. The RSI is holding in the bullish zone with the MACD positive and rising. There is support lower at 639 and 631 followed by 629 and 626 then 624 and 620. There is resistance above at 646.50 and 649. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With August in the books and heading into the Labor Day Holiday weekend, equity markets held firm with some minor profit taking Friday. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue to press up and through the top of its consolidation zone while Crude Oil drifts in consolidation. The US Dollar Index continues to base in the intermediate term move to the downside, teasing a possible change of character, while US Treasuries continue to consolidate in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the uptrend to new 10 year highs while Emerging Markets also continue their uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks to continue to hold at low levels making life easier for equity markets to the upside. The chart of the SPY continues to look strong on both timeframes, closing just under Thursday’s all-time high. The QQQ has a short term warning sign with momentum fading but remains strong on the longer timeframe. The IWM more closely resembles the SPY, strong on both timeframes, but measured against its 8½ month high. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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