SPY Trends and Influencers August 23, 2025

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on August 23rd, 2025

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw with August options expiration in the books and heading into the Jackson Hole Fed Conference, equity markets looked strong holding up in the face of worse than expected inflation reports. Elsewhere, looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue in consolidation in its uptrend while Crude Oil ($USO) drifted in consolidation. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) continued the intermediate term move to the downside near 3 year lows while US Treasuries ($TLT) continued to consolidate in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue the rise to the top of the broad consolidation area while Emerging Markets ($EEM) continued their uptrend.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue at low levels making life easier for equity markets to the upside as they printed new highs. The charts of the $SPY and $QQQ continued to look strong on both timeframes, holding at all-time highs. The $IWM was slightly weaker as it continued to struggle to clear and hold at new highs for the year.ullback. The IWM was slightly weaker as it struggled to clear the 20 day SMA.

The week played out with Gold continuing to consolidate in a tight range until a sharp move toward the top of the range Friday while Crude Oil drifted under resistance in consolidation. The US Dollar moved sideways in consolidation in the downtrend while Treasuries continued to consolidate in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite broke through the broad consolidation range to close at a 10 year high while Emerging Markets retested the highs from last week.

Volatility ticked up early in the week but fell back after the Powell speech at Jackson Hole to end at the lows of the year. This gave life to equities Friday after moving lower the rest of the week. This resulted in the SPY printing a new all-time high Friday and the QQQ with a major reversal trigger. The IWM joined the party too with a new 8 month high. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week after a slight retreat Friday from Thursday’s all-time high. It continued lower Monday and extended through Thursday, breaking the 20 day SMA. Friday saw a reversal higher though following the speech from Chairman Powell and end at a new all-time high close. The RSI is rising in the bullish zone with the MACD is flat and positive.

The weekly chart shows a Hanging Man candle, a possible reversal if confirmed next week. But it was also a bullish engulfing candle, so who knows? The RSI is holding in the bullish zone with the MACD positive and rising. There is support lower at 639 and 631 followed by 629 and 626 then 624 and 620. There is no resistance above 646.50. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With one week left in August and the Jackson Hole Fed Conference in the rearview mirror, equity markets finished strong after a continued slosh to the downside early. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue toward the top of consolidation in its uptrend while Crude Oil drifts in consolidation. The US Dollar Index continues to base in the intermediate term move to the downside while US Treasuries continue to consolidate in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue a new uptrend after breaking the broad consolidation area while Emerging Markets continue their uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks to continue at low levels making life easier for equity markets to the upside. The charts of the SPY and QQQ continue to look strong on both timeframes, with the SPY closing at a new all-time high. The The QQQ has one more plateau to clear to join the SPY and even the IWM jumping after clearing resistance to finish at an 8 month high. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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