SPY Trends and Influencers April 3, 2026

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw, with just 2 trading days left in the 1st Quarter, equities were at 7 month lows and breaking lower after several weeks of body blows. Elsewhere, looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue to consolidate in the pullback while Crude Oil ($USO) continued to churn around $100 per barrel. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) looked to continue to press on resistance in consolidation while US Treasuries ($TLT) moved to the downside nearing 8 month lows. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue a short term downtrend while Emerging Markets ($EEM) pulled back in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue in elevated territory putting pressure on equities. The charts of the $SPY and the $QQQ were cracking on the longer timeframe with bearish momentum while the $IWM was threatening its uptrend. On the shorter timeframe the SPY and the QQQ were showing signs of a wash out with downward gaps in the charts while the IWM held up with relative strength over its long term moving average in a short term downtrend.

The week played out with Gold moving back higher in an oversold bounce while Crude Oil broke the churn to the upside, ending at a nearly 4 year high. The US Dollar failed once again to break the 10 month range while Treasuries feld at the lower end if the long consolidation zone. The Shanghai Composite closed the gap from last week with a small bounce while Emerging Markets drifted lower toward their long term moving average.

Volatility backed off from the spike last week but remained elevated. This alleviated some of the pressure on equities and they rose on the week. This resulted in the SPY and the QQQ bouncing back but still remaining under their long term moving averages while the IWM remained in consolidation over its long term moving average. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week at a 7½ month low. It moved lower Monday and then bounced Tuesday with follow through Wednesday approaching the 200 day SMA and falling 20 day SMA. Thursday opened lower but rose to close nearly unchanged on the day and positive for the week. The RSI is rising out of oversold territory at the midline in the bearish zone and the MACD crossing up but negative.

The weekly chart shows the price holding below the 238.2% extension of the retracement of the 2022 drop and above the 50 week SMA, after the first positive candle in 6 weeks. The RSI is rising in the bearish zone with the MACD continuing lower and near a cross to negative. There is support lower at 651.50 and 649 then 646.50 and 639 before 631 and 629. There is resistance above at 658 and 661 then 667 and 670 before 674 and 676.50. Short Term Downtrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With the shortened pre-Easter week in the books, equities showed some green shoots after a 5 week run lower. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue to recover in the pullback while Crude Oil continues to surge bear 4 year highs and closing in on the 2008 all-time highs. The US Dollar Index looks to continue to press on resistance in consolidation while US Treasuries hold over 15 month support. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue a short term downtrend at possible support while Emerging Markets seek support in the pullback in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks to continue to improve in elevated territory keeping some pressure on equities. The charts of the SPY and the QQQ are finding their legs on the longer timeframe as bearish momentum improves while the IWM looks to resume its uptrend. On the shorter timeframe the SPY and the QQQ are showing signs of a nascent reversal though with lots of work left to do, while the IWM holds up with relative strength over is long term moving average in consolidation in its short term downtrend. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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