SPY Trends and Influencers April 26, 2025

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on April 26th, 2025

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw with the April options expiration in the books, equity markets continued to focus on the impact from tariffs and almost nothing else. Elsewhere looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue its record run higher while Crude Oil ($USO) consolidated in a broad range with a potential reversal higher brewing. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) continued to drift to the downside in a short term downtrend while US Treasuries ($TLT) consolidated in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite (ASHR) looked to continue in consolidation while Emerging Markets ($EEM) remained in broad consolidation.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to remain elevated but dropping making the path slightly easier for equity markets to the upside. Their charts continued to look weak though particularly on the longer timeframe. On the shorter timeframe the QQQ, IWM and SPY could show some strength on moves out of last week’s tight ranges to the downside that could lead to a turn around. Wait for proof.

The week played out with Gold rocketing up to $3500/oz before seeing sellers while Crude Oil stalled in its move higher in consolidation. The US Dollar found support at a 3 year low and bounced while Treasuries fell back to retest the April low before a late week reversal. The Shanghai Composite held in a tight range while Emerging Markets closed the April gap before meeting resistance.

Volatility ticked lower on the week but remained elevated. This released some pressure on equities early in the week and they rose to the April resistance levels. This resulted in the SPY and the QQQ sitting on the edge of a reversal while the IWM may lead the way higher. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week chopping around in a bounce in the correction. It gapped down Monday and continued lower to retest the August low before a bounce Tuesday that extended the rest of the week. It jumped over the 20 day SMA and finished at the April resistance zone. The RSI is peaking over the midline with the MACD crossed up and rising but negative.

The weekly chart shows a bullish engulfing candle for the week ending at the high. The RSI is rising in the bearish zone with the MACD dropping and negative as it nears the 2022 lows. There is support lower at 549.50 then 545.50 and 542 then 540 and 537 before 534 and 530. Resistance above is at 556.50 then 565 and 567 before 571.50 and 574.50. Short Term Pullback Possibly Reversing.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With just 3 trading days left in April, equity markets showed signs that the bottom might be in for this correction. Elsewhere look for Gold to continue to digest its historic move higher while Crude Oil consolidates a possible new downtrend under support. The US Dollar Index sets up for a reversal to the upside while US Treasuries consolidate the downtrend. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue to consolidate in a tight range while Emerging Markets are poised for more upside in broad consolidation.

The Volatility Index looks to remain elevated but moving lower making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. Their charts show signs of a reversal on both timeframes. On the shorter timeframe the IWM, the QQQ and the SPY are breaking short term resistance. On the longer timeframe are printed large engulfing candles over key price levels. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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