SPY Trends and Influencers April 19, 2025

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on April 19th, 2025

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw heading into the holiday shorted pre-Easter week, equity markets showed resilience with a sizeable move higher in a very volatile week. Elsewhere looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue its move higher while Crude Oil ($USO) continued the downtrend. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) continued to trend to the downside while US Treasuries ($TLT) trended lower. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) consolidation looked at risk for a move lower while Emerging Markets ($EEM) consolidated.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to remain at extreme levels making the path easier for equity markets to the downside. Their charts continued to look at risk for more downside, especially on the shorter timeframe. On the longer timeframe both the $QQQ and $SPY printed reversal patterns, if confirmed this week. The $IWM had a bit more work to do in the longer timeframe to join them.

The week played out with Gold continuing the move higher to new all-time highs while Crude Oil bounced into the gap from early this month. The US Dollar is gathering support at a key retracement level while Treasuries built a bear flag at the bottom of consolidation. The Shanghai Composite stalled in its move higher while Emerging Markets also ran into resistance and stalled.

Volatility drifted lower but remained elevated. This took some pressure off equities early in the week and they rose only to stall and give the gains back Thursday and Friday. This resulted in the SPY, the QQQ and the IWM all printing inside weeks. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week chopping around in a deepening pullback. It gapped higher at the open Monday but the fell back intraday and the rest of the week with a bigger drop Wednesday as the Fed Chair spoke on his views of tariffs, inflation and jobs, and held Thursday. It remains under the 20 day SMA. The RSI has stalled in a move higher just short of the midline with the MACD crossed up but now running flat.

The weekly chart shows a narrower inside week. This is the first inside week since December 9th. The RSI is stalling in a bounce in the bearish zone with the MACD dropping and negative as it nears the 2022 lows. There is support lower at 524.50 and 520.50 then 517.50 and 510 before 503.50 and 501.50. Resistance above is at 530 and 534 then 540 and 542.50 before 545.50 and 556.50. Short Term Downtrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With the April options expiration in the books, equity markets continue to focus on the impact from tariffs and almost nothing else. Elsewhere look for Gold to continue its record run higher while Crude Oil consolidates in a broad range with a potential reversal higher brewing. The US Dollar Index continues to drift to the downside in a short term downtrend while US Treasuries consolidate in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue in consolidation while Emerging Markets remain in broad consolidation.

The Volatility Index looks to remain elevated but dropping making the path slightly easier for equity markets to the upside. Their charts continue to look weak though particularly on the longer timeframe. On the shorter timeframe the QQQ, IWM and SPY could show some strength on moves out of last week’s tight ranges to the downside that could lead to a turn around. Wait for proof. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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