SPY Trends and Influencers April 12, 2025

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on April 12th, 2025

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw with the release of the first round of tariffs since 1930, equity markets reacted with their worst week (2 days) since March of 2020. Elsewhere looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue to hold over $3000/oz while Crude Oil ($USO) collapsed into a downtrend. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) continued to drift to the downside in consolidation while US Treasuries ($TLT) continued in consolidation. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue to consolidate the short term move higher while Emerging Markets ($EEM) were on the verge of entering a new downtrend.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to remain very high making the path easier for equity markets to the downside. Their charts looked weak on both timeframes. On the shorter timeframe the gaps the last 2 days of the week might signal short term exhaustion. On the longer timeframe the $SPY, the $IWM and the $QQQ were all in short term downtrends.

The week played out with Gold dipping below $3000/oz before a reversal took it to new all-time highs to end of the week while Crude Oil fell to 4 year lows before a weak bounce. The US Dollar dropped to the bottom of support and the lowest level since July 2023 while Treasuries fell back to the January lows. The Shanghai Composite fell back to fill the gap from the September stimulus package while Emerging Markets dropped to 17 month lows before a bounce to last week’s gap.

Volatility exploded to near the intraday top from August and closing level not seen since March 2020. This continued to roil equities and they had violent moves in large ranges early in the week that settled by Friday. Along the way they had some off both their biggest daily losses and gains. This resulted in the SPY and QQQ up on the week after retesting near the 2021 highs and the IWM finding a 17 month low. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week having fully retraced the move up from the August 2024 low. It gapped down Monday to nearly test the 2021 highs and then moved higher to close nearly unchanged. Tuesday saw the opposite with a gap up sold off all day to end lower. Wednesday then saw one of the best days ever, rising 10.50% after opening down on the day. Thursday it settled into a narrower range and moved higher Friday. This left it up on the week after massive daily swings and back inside the Bollinger Bands®. The RSI is stalling at the midline with the MACD rising but negative.

The weekly chart shows the touch at the 2021 high and rebound. A Piercing candle on huge volume bodes for more upside. The RSI is rising off an oversold condition with the MACD negative and falling. There is resistance at 537 and 540 then 542.50 and 545.50 before 556.50 and 565.50 then 569. Support lower is at 534 and 530 then 524.50 and 520.50 before 517.50 and 510. Short Term Downtrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

Heading into the holiday shorted pre-Easter week, equity markets showed resilience with a sizeable move higher in a very volatile week. Elsewhere look for Gold to continue its move higher while Crude Oil continues the downtrend. The US Dollar Index continues to trend to the downside while US Treasuries trend lower. The Shanghai Composite consolidation looks at risk to a move lower while Emerging Markets consolidate.

The Volatility Index looks to remain at extreme levels making the path easier for equity markets to the downside. Their charts continue to look at risk for more downside, especially on the shorter timeframe. On the longer timeframe both the QQQ and SPY printed reversal patterns if confirmed next week. The IWM has a bit more work to do in the longer timeframe to join them. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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