NYSE Ties up with Deutsche Boerse and Pops – Who’s Next?

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on February 9th, 2011

With the news of the NYSE (Ticker: NYX) in advanced merger discussions with the Deutsche Boerse sending NYX higher, and rumors of a new round of consolidation, it is a good time to look at the other publicly traded exchanges.  The reaction in these stocks to today’s moves in NYX might be a good way to handicap who might benefit next.

CME Group, Ticker: CME

CME has been in a down trend since December. It has rarely moved above the mid line of the Bollinger Bands and today’s reaction has not changed that. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been living below the mid line and may be ready to test it again. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is slowly improving but looks to be a ways off at this pace before it turns up. Watch for the MACD to turn and RSI to maintain above 50 as a clue to a change, but until then it looks like lower highs and lower lows will continue. It would take a move through 318 to gather interest to the upside. This is certainly not the market’s first choice as to who might be next into the fray.

CBOE Holdings, Ticker: CBOE

CBOE has resistance at 25.09 that it has been approaching before this news. The news spiked it thorough and so far it has held higher. The Bollinger bands have been expanding and the RSI and MACD pointing higher. This stock had good technicals before getting a push. Look for a test of 27.10 if it can hold above the break out today and through that to 30.50 as the next resistance. A definite market favorite for next to benefit from a walk down the aisle.

Intercontinental Exchange Holdings, Ticker: ICE

ICE has been stair steeping higher to press up against a ceiling of resistance at 123. The RSI has been rising and the MACD is positive. It is still looks good over 123 for a run higher maybe to 130. But in terms of the market anticipating that this is the next merger beneficiary it seems unlikely. The news did push the stock higher but it took until the end of the day to get through that resistance even with relatively high volume.

Nasdaq OMX Group, Ticker: NDAQ

NDAQ has been in a rising channel since September. Recently it has been making a move to test the top of the channel. During this run the RSI has remained very much in bullish territory but not extreme, the MACD has been increasing and the Bollinger bands have been expanding allowing for the run higher. The news pushed it through the top of the channel and it held. Expect a move higher to test 28.50, the target on a measured move symmetrical to that from the 24.50 plateau up to 26.50. The market clearly likes NDAQ as another potential merger beneficiary in the short run.

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