Copper Confusion is Resolving….Maybe

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on July 7th, 2011

Copper has been a conundrum of late. Moving back and forth around the 400 level first daring you to take a short bias and then a long bias. It has been this way for nearly 2 months since I last wrote about it May 10th (link below). Currently it is showing some signs of wanting to move to the upside. Not resolved yet, but close enough to prepare for the levels that would trigger a bullish move. Let’s take a look.

Copper Point and Figure

The 3 Box Reversal Point and Figure chart above using a box size of the Average True Range with 20 day smoothing at 4.32 shows that Copper has a bearish Price Objective (PO) of 393.12. But it has also created a low pole reversal and is nearing a breakout higher to where it would become a bullish pattern. The first sign would be a print above 440.64 breaking the current down trend followed a print above 449.29 signaling a bullish price objective of 462.74 and above 466.56 a large run to the upside.

Copper Andrew’s Pitchfork

The Andrew’s Pitchfork shows Copper moving higher off of the bullish blue Median Line but bounded by the bearish orange Upper Median Line. The intersection of the two comes in November at 422. A move under the blue Median Line would trigger a move lower. Staying on its current path and moving along the blue Median Line or a move above the orange Upper Median Line currently at 442 are both bullish for Copper, with the latter triggering a steeper a run to the blue Upper Median Line.

Copper Elliott Wave

The Elliott Wave chart shows Copper either beginning Wave (V) or in an extended flat within Wave (IV). Either signals it is either beginning a move higher or about to do so. It should be watched for a hold over 400 or the Wave Count may be in question. If it stays over 400 then expect that Wave (V) will not exceed 736, preventing Wave (III) from being the shortest Wave.

Copper Fibonacci

The Fibonacci chart shows that retraced 23.6% of the move from the late 2008 lows to the January 2011 highs and then bounced. It then rode along the previous highs near 408 until that level intersected with the Fan line and it popped higher. Now it has resistance at 452 and then the previous high at 466. A ride up the Fan line would take it to 466 by October. Under 408 would bring the expectation for 386 again.

With four different views, Copper looks set to head higher by consensus. The key levels to look for to strengthen the confirmation higher are holding above 400 followed by getting over 440, and then 449. A move over 462-466 would be a full on bull ride higher.

Four Guys Walk up to a Copper Mine Field…

(As always you can see details of individual charts and more on my StockTwits feed and on chartly.)

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