SPY Trends and Influencers November 30, 2019

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on November 30th, 2019

Last week’s review of the macro market indicators saw heading into the shortened Thanksgiving week that equity investors had a lot to be thankful for with stock prices sticking near all-time highs. Elsewhere looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue the pullback while Crude Oil ($USO) rose in consolidation. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) looked to continue to drift higher while US Treasuries ($TLT) bounced in their downtrend.

The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) was pulling back in consolidation while Emerging Markets ($EEM) marked time moving sideways at resistance.  Volatility ($VXXB) remained very low keeping the bias to the upside for the equity index ETF’s $SPY, $IWM and $QQQ. The SPY and QQQ both sat above the 20 day SMA’s and looked strong after a digestive week while the IWM continued to churn in a wide consolidation.

The week played out with Gold holding firm before a move higher at the end of the week while Crude Oil was steady until it took a nose dive Friday. The US Dollar held its short term gains while Treasuries finally met resistance and pulled back late in the week. The Shanghai Composite drifted lower ending at 3 month lows while Emerging Markets waited until Friday to drop out of consolidation.

Volatility dropped to 13 month lows before finding a bottom and bouncing Friday, keeping the wind at the back of equities. The Equity Index ETF’s responded by gapping higher Monday and continuing to climb into the Holiday. Friday saw some profit taking. This time the IWM participated, breaking to 13 month highs. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY had weathered a digestive pullback and was sitting just under the all-time high as the week began. It gapped higher Monday and ran to a new record. Then it followed it up with new records Tuesday and Wednesday as well. After the Thanksgiving break it saw some profit taking on Friday.

It is now almost halfway to the target of the triangle break at 330. The daily chart shows the pullback to end the week as price hit the top of the Bollinger Bands® and with the RSI pulling back from overbought territory. The MACD is flat and a bit elevated.

The weekly chart shows the RSI strong in the bullish zone with the MACD rising and bullish. The longer chart gives a target to 350 on the break of consolidation. There is no resistance above 315.50. Support lower comes at 314.20 and 313.50 then 310 and 307.50 before 304.50. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With one month left in the decade equity markets continue to show strength. Elsewhere look for Gold to continue its pullback while Crude Oil remains in broad consolidation. The US Dollar Index looks to continue to drift to the upside while US Treasuries continue to channel lower. The Shanghai Composite looks to drift lower as well with Emerging Markets in broad consolidation.

Volatility looks to remain very low keeping the bias to upside for the equity index ETF’s SPY, IWM and QQQ. The SPY and QQQ look to continue to print new all-time highs while the IWM has joined the uptrend and looks to start to play catch up. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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