Top Trade Ideas for the Week of July 18, 2011: The Best

After reviewing over 800 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. This week’s list contains the first five below to get you started early. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Saturday which looks for Gold to continue its run higher and for Crude Oil to continue to consolidate with a bias for any breakout to the upside. The US Dollar Index looks ready to move higher but could consolidate further, while US Treasuries move sideways. The Shanghai Composite looks ready to break the flag higher while Emerging Markets consolidate in a broad range between 44.2 and 48.2. Volatility looks to remain subdued but despite this Equity Index ETF’s, SPY, IWM and QQQ look biased to the downside in their broad ranges, but near support. A true stock pickers market. Use this information to understand the major trend and how it may be influenced as you prepare for the coming week ahead. Trade’m well.

(As always you can see details of individual charts and more on my StockTwits feed and on chartly.)

Here are the first 5 ideas for the week, to get you started:

Agrium, Ticker: $AGU

Agrium is testing the downtrend resistance line from February and the top of the bull flag at 90. it has a rising Relative Strength Index (RSI) and a positive but a waning Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, supporting upside and a break through, but not powerful reinforcement. If it can get over 90 though it has resistance higher at 92.6 followed by 95. Wait for the break and then use 90 as a stop.

Atwood Oceanics, Ticker: $ATW

Atwood Oceanics printed a very bullish candle Friday on the way to the top of an expanding wedge. If it can get over the top of the wedge at 46.90 it has a Measured Move (MM) to 56 off of the base at 44. The RSI is moving up and the MACD is increasing again. If it fails at 46.90 then look for it short on a move under 46 with a target of 44 first and then 42 , 40 , 39 (all previous lows in the wedge) and then the wedge bottom near 38.25.

Express Scripts, Ticker: $ESRX

Express Scripts is heading towards support at 51, the previous low in March. The RSI pointing lower and the MACD crossing negative support more downside. If it can get under that support then it can head towards support at 48.80. Short interest is over 6% so be careful and it reports earnings on the 27th.

Emulex, Ticker: $ELX

Emulex is heading higher to 9.33 resistance. If it can get over that then there is further resistance at 9.52 followed by 9.84 and then 10 above that. The RSI has moved sharply higher and the MACD is positive and heading back up, with an increase in volume accompanying the move up. Use the 50 day Simple Moving Average (SMA) as a stop initially and adjust it higher to the resistance levels as it passes through them.

Mentor Graphics, Ticker: $MENT

Mentor Graphics has been dead since reporting earnings the Friday before Memorial day. Now it is testing support at 12 for the 3rd time since mid June. This was also a key area in December and January. It approaches there now with the RSI pointing lower and the MACD crossing lower. If it can get under that support then it has support lower at 11.40 followed by 11 and then 10.50. Short interest is under 4%.

Up Next: The Rest

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The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

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