Top Trade Ideas for the Week of June 20, 2011: The Best

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on June 19th, 2011

After reviewing over 800 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. This week’s list contains the first five below to get you started early. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Saturday which looks for Gold ($GLD) to drift higher while Crude Oil ($USO) heads lower. The US Dollar Index ($USDX) is primed to continue its upside move while Treasuries ($TLT) consolidate with an upside bias. Both the Shanghai Composite ($SSEC) and Emerging Markets ($EEM) should see continued weakness. The Volatility Index ($VIX) will be important next week and is poised to move higher. US Equity Index ETF’s, are mixed but generally biased to the downside. The $QQQ is the worst looking with the $SPY mixed but biased lower and the $IWM looking as it may consolidate. Watch for a move in the Volatility Index over 24 to trigger coordination among the Index ETF’s and a move lower. Consolidation in the weaker Indexes should bring the Volatility Index back under 20 and could lead to a trend change. Use this information to understand the major trend and how it may be influenced as you prepare for the coming week ahead. Trade’m well.

(As always you can see details of individual charts and more on my StockTwits feed and on chartly.)

Here are the first 5 ideas for the week, to get you started:

ACCO Brands, Ticker: $ABD

ACCO Brands found a bottom last week at the 23.6% Fibonacci level and is moving higher. This is supported by the rising Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator that crossed positive. It is now at the mid line of the Bollinger bands (BB) and if it can get above that at 7.76 it has resist at 8, followed by 8.30 and 8.55. Short interest is high at 7% which is over 12 days volume to cover. It could benefit from a squeeze.

Lazard, Ticker: $LAZ

Lazard found a bottom at the 50% retracement of its move higher from July 2010 to February. After a series of doji candles it jumped Friday near the mid line of the BB at 37.01. If it can get it then it has resistance at 38.48 followed by 39.30 near the cross of the 50 and 200 day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The RSI is now moving higher and if price gets to 39.30 will likely get over the mid line and start to look even more bullish. The MACD also supports more upside as it has crossed positive. Short interest is not a factor at just over 1%.

Noranda Aluminum, Ticker: $NOR

Noranda Aluminum fell below the 5 month support level at 13.50 last week and then continued lower closing Friday under the 200 day SMA. A falling RSI and a MACD that is growing more negative support further downside. Support lower comes at 12.36 and then 11.50. A stop can be placed near 13.19, the 200 day SMA. Short interest is low but over 50% of the company is held by Private Equity firm Apollo Management. Watch the news.

Old Dominion Freight Line, Ticker: $ODFL

Old Dominion Freight Line is running up against the 50 day SMA which has been acting like resistance, just over the middle of the BB. If it can get through that and over 36 then it has resistance at 37.40 followed by 38.20. The MACD is about to cross positive which would give it a boost and the RSI is bumping the mid line.

Pep Boys – Manny, Moe & Jack, Ticker: $PBY

Pep Boys found a bottom at previous support at 10.50 this week and is holding. The MACD is improving and the RSI starting to recover. If it continues to hold and start higher over 10.8 then it has resistance at 11.50 followed by 12.40 and 13 before the gap fill to 13.50. Short interest is over 14% and more than 12 days volume to cover, so if it gets moving a it could also benefit from a short squeeze.

Up Next: The Rest

If you like what you see above sign up for deeper analysis and trading strategy by using the Get Premium button above. As always you can see details of individual charts and more on my StockTwits page.

The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

blog comments powered by Disqus