Top Trade Ideas for the Week of June 13, 2011: The Best

After reviewing over 800 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. This week’s list contains the first five below to get you started early. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Saturday which sets up as a bizarro week for any macro economic follower. Gold and Oil look set to consolidate or go lower and the US Dollar Index and US Treasuries look to continue higher. Both the Shanghai Composite and Emerging Markets look lower next week. Despite falling equity markets Volatility looks to remain subdued. The US Equity Index ETF’s , SPY, IWM and QQQ all look to have more downside with the weekly charts more ugly than the daily charts. Also all three are moving lower in the same pattern indicating this is a total equity market selloff not sector or capitalization specific. Use this information to understand the major trend and how it may be influenced as you prepare for the coming week ahead. Trade’m well.

(As always you can see details of individual charts and more on my StockTwits feed and on chartly.)

Here are the first 5 ideas for the week, to get you started:

Citrix Systems, Ticker:$CTXS

Citrix Systems gapped up at the end of April and has held tests at 80 twice since then. It is currently testing 80 as support again this time with a series of candles, and the 50 day Simple Moving Average (SMA) just below. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is falling and just failed at the mid line, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is growing more negative. If it breaks under 80 then look for support at 78 and then 76 before retesting the wedge breakout a t 74.20. Short interest is low on this stock. Use the breakdown as a stop and adjust it lower as it passes through support levels.

Exact Sciences, Ticker:$EXAS

Exact Sciences has fallen into a channel for the last four weeks after a failed breakout higher. The RSI and MACD are flat lined moving sideways giving no signals. But with a market on edge there are two possible plays to watch. If it can break higher above 7.5 then it has resistance at 7.75 followed by 8.00 and then 8.25 before having clear air to the previous high at 9.24. On the other hand should it fall below support at 7 then the next level of support comes at 6.75 followed by 6.50 and then 6.19. Play whichever the market gives you and use the breakout level as a stop loss. Short interest is high so be vigilant on the downside.

First Cash Financial Services, Ticker:$FCFS

First Cash Financial Services has been testing resistance at 40 since late March, with one failed break out higher. The rising support of the 50 day SMA has been bringing up the low as well. The RSI has remained in bullish territory since the March move higher testing the mid line several times and the MACD is now moving toward the zero line. If it can break through resistance then it has resistance higher at 42 and a target on a Measured Move (MM) to 44.

Nabors Industries, Ticker:$NBR

Nabors Industries is at previous support at 26 from March and May. A fall just below to 25.45 would create a Head and Shoulders top pattern with a target lower of at least 18.45. The 50 day SMA falling and RSI bouncing off of the mid line and heading lower, combined with the MACD falling and ready to cross negative, support a move lower. Support along the way down would come at 24 and then between 21.50 and 22 followed by 20. Short interest is low on this name as well. Place a stop initially near 26 and then drop it to the neckline on a break below it.

NVIDIA, Ticker:$NVDA

NVIDIA has been bouncing off of support at 17 since mid March and is sitting on it for the 6th time. This time the RSI is falling and at new lows since the original touch at 17, and the MACD is growing more negative. Also it finished near the low Friday after a strong downward move all day to a third consecutive lower low. If it can break below 17 then it may see some stickiness at the 200 day SMA at 16.55 but support comes first at 15 followed by 13.90 and then 12.80. Short interest is just over 5%, not enormous but enough to keep a close watch after you enter. Use the break down level as a stop loss and lock in some gains at the intermediate levels as it falls.

Up Next: The Rest

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The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

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