Top Trade Ideas for the Week of August 17, 2015: The Best

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on August 16th, 2015

After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. This week’s list contains the first five below to get you started early. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which, heading into August Options Expiration week sees the equity markets looking to consolidate in the short term and looking better long term.

Elsewhere look for Gold to continue the bounce in its downtrend while Crude Oil just continues lower. The US Dollar Index seems content to move sideways but with a short term downward bias while US Treasuries are biased higher. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue to consolidate in the longer uptrend while Emerging Markets look ugly with more downside to come.

Volatility looks to remain subdued keeping the bias higher for the equity index ETF’s SPY, IWM and QQQ, despite their failure to move higher last week. Their charts show weakness continuing in the IWM and consolidation in the SPY in QQQ short term. All look better longer term with the QQQ strongest followed by IWM and then SPY. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.
Here are the first 5 ideas for the week, to get you started:

AmSurg, Ticker: $AMSG

AmSurg, $AMSG, had been rising in a bullish channel until it broke above this to start August. Since it has consolidated the move in a classic Bull Flag pattern with declining volume. Friday it started higher and upon breaking the flag would target a Measured Move to 97.80. The RSI is a bit overbought while the MACD is rising. There is resistance above at 85 and then free air. Support lower comes at 81.50 and 80. Short interest is elevated at 6.6%. Enter long on a move over 85 with a stop at 81.50. As it moves over 86.50 move the stop to break even and then to a $2.50 trailing stop over 87.50. Take off 1/3 on a stall at 97.80 or higher and by 100. As an options trade consider the August 85 Calls (offered at $1.85 late Friday) and trade them like the stock trade (using the stock price as a trigger, stop and target).

JetBlue Airways, Ticker: $JBLU

JetBlue Airways, $JBLU, has been taking to the skies since driving off a low at 9.25 in October 2014. With the pullback that started in May and then the reversal back higher this creates a target on an AB=CD pattern to 41.50. In the interim it is interesting from the ascending triangle pattern created. This gives a short term target of 28.30 along the way. The RSI is bullish and rising with the MACD flat after a minor pullback. There is resistance at 24.15 and then free air above. Support lower comes at 23.10 and 22.10 followed by 21.30 and 20. Short interest is high at 10.2%. Enter long on a move over 24.10 with a stop at 23.10. As it moves over 24.65 move the stop to break even and then to a $1 trailing stop over 25.10. Take off 1/3 on a stall at 41.50 or higher. As an options trade consider the September 24 Calls ($1.10) and trade them like the stock trade. Sell the August 25 Calls if you can get over 25 cents for then to reduce the cost.

Louisiana-Pacific, Ticker: $LPX

Louisiana-Pacific, $LPX, pulled back in a pretty arc over June and July before finding support at 14 and bouncing. Last week it consolidated in a Rising Three Methods pattern that saw Friday close at the high on a bullish Marubozu candle (I know, you need a TA dictionary to get through that sentence). This creates a target above at 18.50, right at the prior high, funny how that works. There is resistance at 16.70 and 17.80 before getting there. Support lower comes at 16 and 15.60. The RSI is bullish and rising with the MACD also rising in support of more upside. Short interest is high at 17.4%. Enter long on a move over 16.70 with a stop at 16. As it moves over 17 move the stop to break even and then to a 45 cent trailing stop over 17.15. Take off 1/3 on a stall at 18.50 or higher. As an options trade consider the September 16 calls ($1.20) and trade them like the stock trade. Sell the August 17 Calls if you can get more than 25 cents for them.

Nutrisystem, Ticker: $NTRI

Nutrisystem, $NTRI, has been steadily moving higher until it burst up in July following their earnings report. Since it has consolidated in a bull flag, retracing 50% of the move higher. Friday saw a stronger candle and a turn higher in the RSI. It was already bullish and the MACD is now flattening. There is support at 28.85 and then 26.90. Resistance higher stands at 30.75 with a Measured Move above to 35.30. Short interest is high at 11.6%. Enter long on a move over 30.10 with stop at 28.85. As it moves over 30.75 move the stop to break even and then to a 75 cent trailing stop over 31. Take off 1/3 on a stall at 35.30 or higher. As an options trade consider the September 30 Calls ($1.05) and trade them like the stock trade.

Telephone & Data Systems, Ticker: $TDS

Telephone & Data Systems, $TDS, moved higher in the Spring before finding resistance. It consolidated for a while before pulling back, eventually finding support at 27 in July. Since then it has moved back higher and is testing that resistance again. A break above would target a move to 32.50 initially and then to 34.50. The RSI is bullish and rising with the MACD rising as well. There is resistance at 30.65 and then free air. Support lower comes at 29.15 and 28.15 before 27.40. Short interest is low under 1%. Enter long on a move over 30.65 with a stop at 29.50. As it moves over 31 move the stop to break even and then to a 75 cent trailing stop over 31.40. Take off 1/3 on a stall at 34.50 or higher. As an options trade consider the September 30 Calls ($0.85) as a defined risk alternative.

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