Don’t Be Stupid

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on April 24th, 2014

When will the Dow Jones industrial Average ($DJIA, $DIA) finally confirm the transports with a new all-time high? This will no doubt be a big topic of conversation Thursday. It closed within 75 points Wednesday, less than 50 basis points away. With Apple ($AAPL) beating and jumping higher, the morning is set up to make a new intraday high. But if it does will it hold up for the close? The level is 16,576.66. Don’t be fooled by a new intraday high. We saw one on April 4th (my sister’s birthday) at 16631.63 but then it crapped the bed. There was another one the day before at 16604.15 as well, but that also could not hold up at the close. Will the third time this month be the charm? Wait watch and see and do not do anything stupid.

Whether it happens or not one thing is clear. Now is not the time to short this market. It may end up failing to make a new high and eventually fall back. and if it does then feel free to short away. Jawboning a top and an imminent fall is one thing. But if you have actual money in the market selling now or shorting is nothing short of stupid. Yes I said you are stupid if you sell out now. Hundreds of pundits have picked 1000s of the last 2 market tops. And maybe one has gotten it right. I leave it to Nate Silver to determine if that is even statistically significant. Honor your stops from your plan and let them take you out. Check your emotions and don’t be stupid.

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