Arch Coal is Just the Best of a Bad Group

This past weekend I made a note that there is finally a coal chart that I could start to like, Arch Coal, $ACI. What seems to have been missed is the caveats that came with my future approval. Let me explain in more detail. The daily chart below shows a bottoming formation, nothing more. The price has stopped falling and is moving sideways. It has a Relative Strength Index (RSI) that has continued to stall at 60 and a Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator (MACD) that has been running flat and is now starting to fade. Consolidation at best on this time frame, with the

Arch Coal, $ACI, Daily

possibility of a minor double top at the falling 100 day Simple Moving Average (SMA). It will take a move over 7.70, a higher high to start a bullish watch. The weekly picture puts it into perspective. The channel between 5.80 and 7.70 shows a MACD that is trying to move higher and a RSI that is slowly trending up, but the MACD is still very near zero and the RSI is not yet over 40

Arch Coal, $ACI, Weekily

and starting to roll lower. Nothing bullish here, move along. Finally, the monthly view is showing nothing more than a bear flag with a RSI that is running along the oversold line but not extreme and a MACD that is negative and slowly going no where. Go ahead and put your money in this name if you have some fundamental reason. Frankly with a slowing world economy I am not sure what that could be. But from a technical perspective this stock is treading water and has not shown that it will even survive. With the broad market looking much better, I will pass.

Arch Coal, $ACI, Monthly

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