SPY Trends and Influencers October 31, 2026

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on October 31st, 2026

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw, with one week left in scary October and the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, equity markets were spooked by the combination of strong earnings growth and capex growth. Elsewhere, looked for Gold to continue the short term move lower with Crude Oil resuming its short term move higher. The US Dollar Index looked to try to hold up over the top of the zone on the verge of an uptrend while US Treasuries closed in on a retest of the breakdown levels. The Shanghai Composite shifted to a downtrend after confirming a long rounding top while Emerging Markets continued to show risk to their uptrend.

The Volatility Index looked elevated in the normal zone, near a more worrisome move higher putting pressure on equities. The chart of the SPY was on the cusp of breaking support in the short term while the IWM and QQQ continued their short terms move lower. The SPY and QQQ continued to look stronger on the longer timeframe holding consolidation ranges while the IWM was in a short term downtrend.

The week played out with Gold consolidating the move lower until a deeper drop Friday while Crude Oil continued toward a test of resistance higher. The US Dollar rebounded but failed to surpass the October high while Treasuries consolidated at the retest of their breakdown level. The Shanghai Composite broke lower to finish at a 15 month low while Emerging Markets failed at their long term moving average and fell back to the July low. Volatility drifted lower early in the week but bounced back Friday to finish little changed.

This pinned equities early in the week but hey rose to new highs Thursday and Friday. This resulted in equities starting the week to the upside with the SPY, the QQQ and the IWM rising each day through Wednesday. The IWM continued higher Thursday while the SPY and QQQ saw a pullback. Friday saw the QQQ accelerating down to a 3 month low, the SPY testing the bottom of its 3 month consolidation range and the IWM stalling with a minor pullback. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week at the bottom of consolidation and just above the 100 day SMA. It rose Monday and continued through Wednesday, touching the top of the range and over the 50 day SMA following the FOMC meeting. The earnings reports from Alphabet and Caterpillar changed that quickly though as it moved lower Thursday and then accelerated down Friday ending below the 100 day SMA for the first time since early April. It also stopped at the same spot as the September failed breakdown. The RSI is dropping at the lower edge of the bullish zone and the MACD negative and moving down.

The weekly chart shows price falling through support and the 20 week SMA. The RSI is holding in the bullish zone with the MACD rolling over and positive. There is support lower at 755.50 and 751.50 before 748.50 and 742 then 733. There is resistance above at 761 and 762.50 then 769 and 772 before 776 and 780. Bottom of Consolidation in Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With October and the FOMC meeting in the books, equity markets have been spooked by the combination of strong earnings growth, disappearing free cashflow and capex growth. They now face the midterm elections and non-farm payrolls report. No rest for the spooked. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue lower in a downtrend with Crude Oil resuming the short term move higher. The US Dollar Index looks to break consolidation over the top of the zone on the verge of an uptrend while US Treasuries knock on the door of a retest of the breakdown levels. The Shanghai Composite continues the downtrend after confirming a long rounding top while Emerging Markets now shift to a short term downtrend.

The Volatility Index looks to continue in elevated territory, putting pressure on equities. The chart of the SPY is breaking through support in the short term while the IWM and QQQ continue their short terms move lower. The SPY and QQQ continue to look stronger on the longer timeframe but are cracking through their consolidation ranges while the IWM continues in a short term downtrend. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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