SPY Trends and Influencers October 17, 2026

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on October 17th, 2026

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw, heading into the start of earnings season equity markets were prepped for more upside with seasonal sentiment now headed into an historically strong period in the election cycle. Elsewhere, looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue a pause in the short term move lower with Crude Oil ($USO) paused in the short term move higher. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) looked to continue to work to push through the top of the zone on the verge of an uptrend while US Treasuries ($TLT) held at 24 year high yields and all-time lows in price for the Treasury Bond ETF. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked set to continue in consolidation after the holidays while Emerging Markets ($EEM) continued to show risk to the uptrend.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue low in the normal zone, near the lows of the year keeping a tailwind behind equities. The charts of the $SPY and the $QQQ were looking stronger after breaking their flags over support on the shorter timeframe, while the $IWM was finding some footing in the short term downtrend. The SPY and QQQ continued to look strong on the longer timeframe with both the SPY and QQQ making new highs while the IWM continued to show some signs of managing the risk to the 19 month uptrend.

The week played out with Gold continuing the consolidation in a narrow range while Crude Oil broke its consolidation to move higher. The US Dollar met resistance at the top of the range and reversed while Treasuries caught a bid and moved higher. The Shanghai Composite broke down through support to a 14 month low while Emerging Markets found support at their long term moving average.

The Volatility Index ticked up midweek but fell back to end little changed in the normal zone. This hit equities on the spike and the struggled to recover the drop to end off for the week. This resulted in the SPY and the QQQ closing the gaps from the start of the month and the IWM faring the worst touching near 6 month lows. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week just off the all-time high and over the top of the recent range as support. It held there through Tuesday and then broke lower Wednesday dropping over 1%. This was the first 1% drop in over 2½ months. Thursday saw a bounce back and then Friday gave a second 1% drop to end the week at the bottom of the prior range. The RSI is dropping through the midline in the bullish zone and the MACD positive and crossed down.

The weekly chart shows reversing last week’s gains and back at support and the 20 week SMA. The RSI is holding in the bullish zone with the MACD rolling over and positive. There is support lower at 762.50 and 761 then 755.50 and 751.50 before 748.50 and 742. There is resistance above at 769 aand 772 then 776 and 780. Consolidation in Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With the first week of earnings season and October Options Expiration in the books, equity markets are bucking the seasonal sentiment of an historically strong period in the election cycle and falling prey to spooky October fears. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue a pause in the short term move lower with Crude Oil resuming the short term move higher. The US Dollar Index looks to continue to work to push through the top of the zone on the verge of an uptrend while US Treasuries bounce from 24 year high yields and all-time lows in price for the Treasury Bond ETF. The Shanghai Composite looks on the verge of confirming a long rounding top while Emerging Markets continue to show risk to their uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks elevated in the normal zone, near a more worrisome move higher putting pressure on equities. The charts of the QQQ and the IWM are looking weaker and easier to the downside in the short term while the SPY tests support in consolidation. The SPY and QQQ continue to look strong on the longer timeframe while the IWM in a short term downtrend. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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