SPY Trends and Influencers May 16, 2026

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on May 16th, 2026

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw, with the bulk of the 1st Quarter earnings in the rearview mirror and heading into next week’s May options expiration, equities continued to act strong, tacking on more new all-time highs for the fourth week in a row. Elsewhere, looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue walking the fence between a downtrend and digestion in the uptrend while Crude Oil ($USO) bounced around in broad consolidation under $100/bbl. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) looked to continue to drift lower in consolidation while US Treasuries ($TLT) continued to hold over 16 month support like nothing is happening.

The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue a short term uptrend closing in on the 2026 top and a new 11 year high while Emerging Markets ($EEM) pushed to new highs in their uptrend. The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue in the normal zone removing all the pressure on equities. The charts of the $SPY, the $QQQ and the $IWM continued to look extremely strong on the longer timeframe with a 6th positive week moving to new highs. On the shorter timeframe the SPY, the QQQ and the IWM also looked very strong but with overheated momentum and might need a pause.

The week played out with Gold moving closer to calling it a downtrend with another lower high while Crude Oil found some strength and rebounded higher but finished at a lower high. The US Dollar rose to test the April gap, its highest level in 6 weeks, while Treasuries dropped to their lowest prices in nearly a year. The Shanghai Composite printed a new 11 year high midweek before settling lower Friday while Emerging Markets retreated from the record close last Friday.

The Volatility Index held in the high teens all week, continuing the bullish support for equities. Equities took advantage of that making new highs Monday and then Wednesday and Thursday before Options Expiration saw some shenanigans and a move lower Friday. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week at an all-time high. It made another Monday and then paused Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday added 2 more highs and it continued to ride the Bollinger Bands® as they open higher. Friday saw a small pullback to end the week of Friday all-time high closes at 4. The RSI is pulling back down through the edge of overbought territory in the bullish zone and the MACD rising and positive.

The weekly chart shows the price pushing above the 300% extension of the retracement of the 2022 drop at 741.50 before stalling with 7 positive weeks in a row. The RSI is rising in the bullish zone with the MACD rising and positive. There is support lower at 735 and 728 then 724 and 718 before 715 and 710. There is resistance above at 741 and 750. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With the May options expiration in the rearview mirror and heading into the last week before the long weekend and unofficial start of summer, equities continue to act strong, tacking on more new all-time highs but failing to close out the week at highs. This ends the streak of Friday all-time high closes at four. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue walking the fence between a downtrend and digestion in the uptrend while Crude Oil bounces around in broad consolidation over $100/bbl near the top of the range. The US Dollar Index looks to continue to higher in broad consolidation while US Treasuries continue to test support and a possible continuation of their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue a short term uptrend new 11 year highs while Emerging Markets digest the new highs in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks to continue in the normal zone removing all the pressure on equities. The charts of the SPY, the QQQ and the IWM continue to look extremely strong on the longer timeframe with a 7th positive week for the SPY. On the shorter timeframe the SPY, the QQQ and the IWM also look very strong but with overheated momentum starting to reset lower and price digesting to end the week. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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