SPY Trends and Influencers March 21, 2026

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on March 21st, 2026

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw, heading into the third week of the military operations against Iran, equity markets were succumbing to the combination of a possible prolonged conflict with the shut down of the Strait of Hormuz and stubborn inflation data. Elsewhere, looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue to consolidate between $4980 and $5240 digesting the long move up while Crude Oil ($USO) continued higher in a new uptrend. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) looked to continue to show some strength on the cusp of a break out over resistance in consolidation while US Treasuries ($TLT) leaked to the downside. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue consolidation in the uptrend while Emerging Markets ($EEM) pulled back in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue in elevated territory putting pressure on equities. The charts of the $SPY and the $QQQ remained strong on the longer timeframe with a slight pullback in consolidation while the $IWM was starting to roll lower, a threat to its uptrend. On the shorter timeframe the SPY and the QQQ were cracking and testing the consolidation range with a short term move lower. The IWM looked to have lost support and headed for its 200 day SMA.

The week played out with Gold crashing down through the range while Crude Oil consolidated the move higher. The US Dollar met resistance at the top of the 10 month range while Treasuries fell to 5½ month lows. The Shanghai Composite fell to the lowest level since Christmas while Emerging Markets closed at a 2026 low.

Volatility held in an elevated but narrow range. This put pressure on equities ahead of the FOMC meeting and they succumbed to that pressure following the press conference, ending at 4 month lows. This resulted in the SPY and the QQQ breaking their 200 day moving averages for the first time since May 2025 and the IWM ending at a 4 month lows, just over its long term moving average. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week at a 4.5 month low. It had a good start, rising slightly Monday and Tuesday but then reversed Wednesday and continued lower the rest of the week. It ended at a 6½ month low and under its 200 day SMA for the first time since the gap opened in early May 2025. The RSI is falling near oversold territory in the bearish zone and the MACD falling and negative.

The weekly chart shows the price has dropped back and through the 238.2% extension of the retracement of the 2022 drop and resting just above the 50 week SMA. The RSI is falling at the edge of the bearish zone with the MACD moving lower but positive. There is support lower at 646.50 followed by 639 and 631 then 629 and 626 before 624 and 620. There is resistance above 646.50 at 649 and 651.50 then 658 and 661 before 667 and 670. Pullback in Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With the March FOMC meeting and Quadruple Witching in the books, equity markets have taken a turn for the worse ending at 6 month lows and below their long term moving averages. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue its pullback in the long term uptrend while Crude Oil churns around $100 per barrel. The US Dollar Index looks to continue to press on resistance in consolidation while US Treasuries bleed to the downside at 6 month lows. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue a short term downtrend while Emerging Markets pullback in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks to continue in elevated territory putting pressure on equities. The charts of the SPY and the QQQ remain strong on the longer timeframe but with some weakening showing up while the IWM is starting to roll lower, a threat to its uptrend. On the shorter timeframe the SPY and the QQQ are joining the IWM in a short term downtrend. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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