SPY Trends and Influencers November 29, 2025

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on November 29th, 2025

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw with the November options expiration in the rearview mirror, equity markets showed continued jitters, with mixed messaging from the Fed and the first Government data, the September jobs report. Elsewhere, looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue the uptrend with some short term consolidation while Crude Oil ($USO) held lower in consolidation. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) continued the short term drift to the upside, toward a breakout, while US Treasuries ($TLT) continued in consolidation, sputtering the possible reversal higher. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue the uptrend after some digestion from the 10 year highs while Emerging Markets ($EEM) stalled in their uptrend putting it at risk.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue to move up into elevated territory further stalling the equity moves higher and setting them back. The charts of the $SPY, the $IWM and the $QQQ remained strong on the longer timeframe but with some risk of a correction. On the shorter timeframe the SPY and QQQ reset from the all-time highs to the 100 day SMA and remained at risk for further downside, while the IWM looked most vulnerable to more downside, sitting on support.

The holiday shortened week played out with Gold moving higher out of consolidation while Crude Oil continued to hold at the low end of consolidation. The US Dollar drifted lower while Treasuries drifted to the upside to resistance. The Shanghai Composite found support in its pullback and started a move higher while Emerging Markets confirmed a lower low and bounced.

Volatility moved lower all week closing with a touch at the October low. This gave equities some breathing room and then move to the upside, back toward their all-time highs. This resulted in the SPY and the QQQ finishing within a couple of points of their tops and the IWM just 3 points from its high. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week at the 100 day SMA. It started higher Monday and continued the rest of the week to end just shy of a higher high and about 1% from the all-time high. The RSI is rising into the bullish zone with the MACD crossed up and positive.

The weekly chart shows a Marubozu candle driving off the 238.2% extension of the retracement of the 2022 pullback. The RSI is rising in the bullish zone with the MACD leveling and positive. There is support lower at 676.50 and 674 then 670 and 667 before 662 and 658. There is resistance above at 685 and 688.50. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With the month of November in the books, equity markets weather another shallow pullback and are looking strong again. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue the uptrend while Crude Oil holds lower in consolidation. The US Dollar Index continues the short term drift to the downside while US Treasuries continue in consolidation still teasing of a possible reversal higher. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the uptrend after some digestion from the 10 year highs while Emerging Markets find support and reverse in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks to continue to hold in the normal range after a pullback, making it easier for equities to move higher. The charts of the SPY, the IWM and the QQQ look strong on the longer timeframe after reversals on the week. On the shorter timeframe the SPY, the IWM and the QQQ have regained their swagger with strong moves higher, the IWM leading the charge. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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