SPY Trends and Influencers November 1, 2025

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on November 1st, 2025

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw following better than expected inflation data, a great start to earnings season, and ahead of the FOMC meeting, equity markets were flourishing at new all-time highs. Elsewhere, looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue the uptrend with some short term consolidation while Crude Oil ($USO) moved higher off the bottom of consolidation. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) continued to drift in consolidation, while US Treasuries ($TLT) held higher in their consolidation, continuing to tease of a reversal higher.

The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue the uptrend with new 10 year highs while Emerging Markets ($EEM) also continued their uptrend to new 4 year highs. The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue to drift lower in the normal zone freeing equity markets to move higher. The charts of the $SPY, the $IWM and the $QQQ remained strong on the longer timeframe. On the shorter timeframe they all weathered the short term move lower and momentum reset and also looked strong with the SPY and QQQ closing at all-time highs.

The week played out with Gold finding support as it digested the strong move up and then reversed higher while Crude Oil met resistance and drifted lower. The US Dollar drifted higher, nearing an upside breakout while Treasuries fell back to test the short term breakout area. The Shanghai Composite made a new 10 year high and then consolidated while Emerging Markets met resistance at a new 4 year high midweek and fell back.

Volatility held in a tight range in the normal zone, despite messaging from Chairman Powell that a December rate cut was not a lock. This allowed equities to continue to print new highs into the middle of the week. After a pullback Thursday they recovered Friday to end up on the week. This resulted in the SPY and the QQQ printing 3 new all-time highs to start the week and finishing October strong. The IWM nearly matched the October 15th high before moving lower on the week. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week at a new all-time high close after a doji star, indecision candle. It gapped higher Monday and set 3 more all-time highs through Wednesday before a 2 day pullback to end the week. That pulled price back within the Bollinger Bands®. The RSI is rising in the bullish zone with the MACD leveling and positive.

The weekly chart shows a doji higher continuing the move above the 238.2% extension of the retracement of the 2022 pullback. The RSI is holding in the bullish zone with the MACD positive and turning back higher. There is support lower at 680 and 676.50 then 674 and 670 before 667 and 661. There is resistance above at 685 and 688.50. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

Following the FOMC meeting and Powell’s unexpected caution that a December rate cut was not inevitable, equity markets brushed it aside and focused on the good earnings reports to hold at all-time highs. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue the uptrend with some short term consolidation while Crude Oil moves lower again in consolidation. The US Dollar Index continues to drift to the upside consolidation rounding out a bottom, while US Treasuries hold at the breakout higher in their consolidation, continuing to tease of an intermediate term reversal higher. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the uptrend at 10 year highs while Emerging Markets also continue their uptrend at 4 year highs.

The Volatility Index looks to continue to drift in the normal zone freeing equity markets to move higher. The charts of the SPY, the IWM and the QQQ remain strong on the longer timeframe. On the shorter timeframe the SPY and QQQ also look strong holding at all-time highs, while the IWM continues the trend higher but in a move volatile range. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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