SPY Trends and Influencers October 25, 2025

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on October 25th, 2025

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw with October Options Expiration in the rearview mirror equity markets held up well into the start of earnings season despite rising volatility. Elsewhere, looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue the uptrend to new all-time highs while Crude Oil ($USO) moved lower in a short term downtrend to the bottom of consolidation. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) continued to drift down in consolidation, while US Treasuries ($TLT) held higher in their consolidation, continuing to tease of a reversal higher. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue the short term consolidation in the uptrend near 10 year highs while Emerging Markets ($EEM) also continued their uptrend to new 4 year highs.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue to drift higher from low levels, checking the power of the equity markets move to the upside. The charts of the $SPY, the $IWM and the $QQQ remained strong on the longer timeframe. On the shorter timeframe despite the IWM printing two new all-time highs, it and the SPY and QQQ remained vulnerable to more downside in the short term.

The week played out with Gold finally meeting some resistance and profit taking midweek pulling it lower while Crude Oil found support and squeezed higher in the range. The US Dollar continued to move sideways while Treasuries failed to hold a break higher early in the week and were mainly unchanged. The Shanghai Composite broke to a new 10 year plus high while Emerging Markets made their own 4 plus year highs.

Volatility reversed the spike higher from last week to finish back in the normal range. This put the wind at the back of equities midweek and they rose Thursday and Friday. This resulted in the SPY, the QQQ and the IWM printing new all-time highs Friday. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week between the 20 and 50 day SMA’s after a pullback from the highs. It gapped up over the 20 day SMA Monday and held there through Thursday and ended the week with a gap and go Friday to a new all-time high close. The RSI is rising off the midline in the bullish zone with the MACD crossing up and positive.

The weekly chart shows a strong move higher after a visit back to the 238.2% extension of the retracement of the 2022 pullback. The RSI is holding in the bullish zone with the MACD positive and turning back higher. There is support lower at 674 and 670 then 667 and 661 before 658 and 651.50. There is no resistance above at 678.50. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

Following better than expected inflation data, a great start to earnings season and ahead of the FOMC meeting next week, equity markets are flourishing at new all-time highs. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue the uptrend with some short term consolidation while Crude Oil moves higher off the bottom of consolidation. The US Dollar Index continues to drift in consolidation, while US Treasuries hold higher in their consolidation, continuing to tease of a reversal higher. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the uptrend with new 10 year highs while Emerging Markets also continue their uptrend to new 4 year highs.

The Volatility Index looks to continue to drift lower in the normal zone freeing equity markets to move higher. The charts of the SPY, the IWM and the QQQ remain strong on the longer timeframe. On the shorter timeframe they all weathered the short term move lower and momentum reset and also look strong with the SPY and QQQ closing at all-time highs. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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