SPY Trends and Influencers October 18, 2025

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on October 18th, 2025

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw the first full week without economic data started well for equity markets as they continued to move higher, piling up more new record highs, but Friday ended that. Elsewhere, looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue the uptrend to new highs while Crude Oil ($USO) moved lower in a short term downtrend in consolidation. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) continued to drift upwards in consolidation, while US Treasuries ($TLT) held higher in their consolidation, continuing to tease of a reversal higher. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue the short term consolidation in the uptrend to new 10 year highs while Emerging Markets ($EEM) also continued their uptrend to new 4 year highs.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue to drift higher from low levels, pumping the brakes on the equity markets move to the upside. The charts of the $SPY, the $IWM and the $QQQ remained strong on the longer timeframe, albeit with a possible reversal candle on the week. On the shorter timeframe despite the SPY and the QQQ adding 2 more new all-time highs and the IWM with one, they all ended the week with strong moves to the downside suggesting more downside to come.

The week played out with Gold continuing to move higher over $4000/oz with 4 new record highs while Crude Oil continued the move lower in a short term downtrend. The US Dollar met resistance and reversed lower while Treasuries continued to tease of a reversal higher as they drifted up. The Shanghai Composite held at 10 year highs over the recent consolidation zone while Emerging Markets recovered back to the early October highs.

The Volatility Index continued to tick up in the week hitting 6 month highs. This resulted in large cap and tech sector equities stalling but the small caps taking the lead and hitting new highs. An interesting result as the SPY and QQQ held in a tight range despite rising volatility. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week under the 20 day SMA for the first time since September 2nd and just above the 50 day SMA which it has not crossed since April 30th. It gapped up Monday but basically moved sideways in a narrow range the rest of the week within last Friday’s candle and between the 20 and 50 day SMA’s. The RSI is holding at the midline in the bullish zone with the MACD dropping but positive.

The weekly chart shows an inside week at the 238.2% extension of the retracement of the 2022 pullback. The RSI is holding in the bullish zone with the MACD positive and rolling toward a cross down. There is support lower at 661 and 658 then 651.50 and 649 before 646.50 and 639. There is resistance above at 667 and 670 then 674. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With October Options Expiration in the rearview mirror equity markets held up well into the start of earnings season despite rising volatility. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue the uptrend to new all-time highs while Crude Oil moves lower in a short term downtrend to the bottom of consolidation. The US Dollar Index continues to drift down in consolidation, while US Treasuries hold higher in their consolidation, continuing to tease of a reversal higher. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the short term consolidation in the uptrend near 10 year highs while Emerging Markets also continue their uptrend to new 4 year highs.

The Volatility Index looks to continue to drift higher from low levels, checking the power of the equity markets move to the upside. The charts of the SPY, the IWM and the QQQ remain strong on the longer timeframe. On the shorter timeframe despite the IWM printing two new all-time highs, it and the SPY and QQQ remain vulnerable to more downside in the short term. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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