SPY Trends and Influencers September 27, 2025

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on September 27th, 2025

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw coming out of a week with the FOMC meeting and Quadruple Witching, equity markets continued to look rock solid, making new highs in the index ETFs across the board. Elsewhere, looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue the uptrend to new highs while Crude Oil ($USO) drifted in consolidation. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) continued to run sideways in consolidation, while US Treasuries ($TLT) seemed to be in the early stages of reversing their downtrend.

The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue the uptrend to new 10 year highs while Emerging Markets ($EEM) also continued their uptrend at 4 year highs. The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue to hold at low levels, making life easier for equity markets to the upside. The charts of the $SPY, the $IWM and the $QQQ were all strong on both timeframes. The SPY and the QQQ added 3 more all-time high closes, including Friday, while the IWM saw profit taking Friday after its first new all-time high in 46 months. 

The week played out with Gold racing higher to start the week then consolidating while Crude Oil caught a bid in consolidation and rose. The US Dollar also found some strength but stalled at a key level Friday while Treasuries held in a tight range over support. The Shanghai Composite also stayed in a narrow range in consolidation while Emerging Markets met resistance and pulled back from the recent highs.

The Volatility Index drifted slightly higher but remained in the teens. This was a neutral for equities and they reacted to Fed officials’ comments in a slightly negative way heading into the Quarter end. This resulted in the SPY, the QQQ and the IWM all drifting lower but remaining bullish. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week at an all-time high close. It started the week off with a strong move up Monday to a new all-time high. It opened higher Tuesday but could not hold up and started a 3 day move lower. It printed a doji Thursday, touching the 20 day SMA, and confirmed this as a Morning Star Reversal with a move higher Friday. The RSI has reset a bit lower in the bullish zone with the MACD drifting lower and positive.

The weekly chart shows a doji at the 238.2% extension of the retracement of the 2022 pullback. This could be confirmed as an Evening Star Reversal with a move lower next week. The RSI is rising in the bullish zone with the MACD positive and rising. The Bollinger Bands® are also pointing higher. There is support lower at 661 and 658 then 651.50 and 649 before 646.50 and 639. There is no resistance above 667. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

Coming into the end of the 3rd Quarter, equity markets look strong as they held up well in what historically is a soft seasonal environment just shy of record highs. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue the uptrend to new highs while Crude Oil drifts in consolidation. The US Dollar Index continues to run sideways in consolidation, while US Treasuries may be in the early stages of reversing their downtrend but need more convincing. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the short term consolidation in the uptrend to new 10 year highs while Emerging Markets also continue their uptrend at 4 year highs.

The Volatility Index looks to continue to hold at low levels, making life easier for equity markets to the upside. The charts of the SPY, the IWM and the QQQ are all strong on both timeframes. The SPY and the QQQ added another all-time high closes to start the week and along with the IWM look poised for that to continue into the 4th Quarter.

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