SPY Trends and Influencers September 13, 2025

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on September 13th, 2025

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw with the first week of September in the books, equity markets held firm with some minor midweek profit taking despite some dismal employment data. Elsewhere, looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue the renewed uptrend while Crude Oil ($USO) drifted in consolidation. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) continued to base, a change of character to consolidation, while US Treasuries ($TLT) continued to consolidate in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue the uptrend to new 10 year highs while Emerging Markets ($EEM) also continued their uptrend.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue to hold at low levels, making life easier for equity markets to the upside. The chart of the $SPY continued to look strong on both timeframes, closing just under Thursday’s all-time high but with some signs of consolidation. The $QQQ had a short term warning sign with momentum fading as it consolidated over support but remained strong on the longer timeframe. The $IWM more closely resembled the SPY, strong on both timeframes with some possible short term consolidation creeping in, but measured against its 8½ month high.

The week played out with Gold continuing higher but meeting resistance midweek and consolidating while Crude Oil recovered the loss from last week but then gave it up, all within consolidation. The US Dollar continued in consolidation while Treasuries jumped to a 4 month high, showing a possible reversal to the upside. The Shanghai Composite consolidated under resistance in the uptrend while Emerging Markets continued higher, now at 4 year highs.

Volatility held in a tight range near the lows of the year all week. This allowed equities to move higher all week. As a result the SPY and the QQQ printed 4 new all-time highs closing at one Friday. The IWM rose to a 10 month high, just shy of a new record close. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week just off the all-time high close from Thursday. It started the week off with a small move higher Monday and then again Tuesday to a new all-time high. It followed that up with 2 more days of upside, printing new highs each day, before a small drop Friday. The RSI is rising in the bullish zone with the MACD rising and positive. The negative momentum divergence from last week has been voided.

The weekly chart shows a second longer body candle moving higher. The RSI is rising in the bullish zone with the MACD positive and rising. The Bollinger Bands® are pointing higher. There is support lower at 651.50 and 649 then 646.50 and 639 before 631 and 629. There is no resistance above 659. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

Heading into the September FOMC meeting, equity markets are rocking, making new highs as the focus has shifted toward addressing labor and away from inflation data. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue the uptrend to new highs while Crude Oil drifts in consolidation. The US Dollar Index continues to run sideways in consolidation, while US Treasuries may be in the early stages of reversing their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the uptrend to new 10 year highs while Emerging Markets also continue their uptrend at 4 year highs.

The Volatility Index looks to continue to hold at low levels, making life easier for equity markets to the upside. The chart of the SPY continues to look strong on both timeframes, closing at an all-time high with the QQQ negating its warning sign and also at new highs. The IWM remains the laggard, but strong on both timeframes, and at a 10 month high, just short of its top. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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