SPY Trends and Influencers August 16, 2025

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on August 16th, 2025

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw heading into August options expiration and the tail end of earnings season, equity markets looked refreshed and stronger following the 2 day move lower to end the prior week. Elsewhere, looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue to rise in consolidation in its uptrend while Crude Oil ($USO) drifted in consolidation. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) continued the intermediate term move to the downside near 3 year lows while US Treasuries ($TLT) continued to consolidate in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue the rise to the top of the broad consolidation area while Emerging Markets ($EEM) continued their short term uptrend.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to return to normal levels making life easier for equity markets to the upside in search of new highs. The charts of the $SPY and $QQQ were breaking to new all-time highs and looked strong on both timeframes after a momentum reset on the pullback. The $IWM was slightly weaker as it struggled to clear the 20 day SMA.

The week played out with Gold stalling in consolidation dropping slightly lower while Crude Oil broke support and then reversed to retest it at the end of the week. The US Dollar drifted lower while Treasuries continued in consolidation. The Shanghai Composite rose to a levels not seen since the end of 2021 while Emerging Markets ran up to prices not touched since the beginning of 2022.

The Volatility Index dropped to the lowest level of the year, despite stubborn inflation readings. This allowed equities to rise to new highs early in the week and then pause to close it Friday. This resulted in the SPY printing a new all-time high Thursday and the QQQ Wednesday, before both stalled, with IWM printing an 8 month high Wednesday before pausing. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week over the 20 day SMA and approaching the all-time high. It held there Monday and then started higher, making a new all-time high close Tuesday. It followed that up with two more records Wednesday and Thursday before a slight retreat Friday. The RSI is stalling in a move up in the bullish zone. Should this be a top in price and RSI it would create a divergence to track for a possible reversal lower. The MACD is crossed up and positive.

The weekly chart shows follow through after a near Marubozu bullish candle last week. The RSI is rising in the bullish zone with the MACD positive and rising. There is support lower at 639 and 631 followed by 629 and 626 then 624 and 620. There is no resistance above 645. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With August options expiration in the books and heading into the Jackson Hole Fed Conference, equity markets looked strong holding up in the face of worse than expected inflation reports. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue in consolidation in its uptrend while Crude Oil drifts in consolidation. The US Dollar Index continues the intermediate term move to the downside near 3 year lows while US Treasuries continue to consolidate in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the rise to the top of the broad consolidation area while Emerging Markets continue their uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks to continue at low levels making life easier for equity markets to the upside as they print new highs. The charts of the SPY and QQQ continue to look strong on both timeframes, holding at all-time highs. The IWM is slightly weaker as it continues to struggle to clear and hold at new highs for the year. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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