SPY Trends and Influencers August 2, 2025

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on August 2nd, 2025

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw heading into the peak of earnings season and the FOMC meeting, equity markets continued to show strength, making new highs. Elsewhere, looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue to consolidate in its uptrend while Crude Oil ($USO) drifted in consolidation. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) continued a short term move to the downside at 3 year lows while US Treasuries ($TLT) consolidated in their downtrend.

The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to move up to test the top of the broad consolidation area while Emerging Markets ($EEM) continued their short term uptrend. The Volatility Index ($VIX) looked to continue in the normal range making life easier for equity markets to the upside. The charts of the $SPY and $QQQ continued to point to more strength on both timeframes as they continued to print new all-time highs. The $IWM continued to make slower progress in its move higher.

The week played out with Gold seeing some downward pressure in consolidating until a strong drive higher Friday to recover while Crude Oil moved higher early then settled. The US Dollar ran to a 5 month high before a big sell off to end the week while Treasuries moved higher all week. The Shanghai Composite ran sideways until a drop Friday while Emerging Markets ran lower all week threatening the trend higher.

Volatility ticked up early in the week and the accelerated Thursday and Friday following the FOMC meeting and a weak employment report. This led to equities treading water early in the week but then dropping fast Thursday and Friday. This resulted in the SPY and the QQQ breaking their short term moving averages for the first time since late April and raising chatter of a pullback. The IWM also dropped below a key moving average for the first time since May. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week at an all-time high. It probed higher Monday and again Tuesday but could not hold up. Wednesday saw a move lower followed by another probe to an intraday high Thursday that failed and closed lower. Friday then saw a gap down and run lower to make it 5 down days in a row. Quite the contrast to last week’s 5 record high closes. It is now below the 20 day SMA for the first time in over a month. The RSI is dropping through the midline in the bullish zone with the MACD falling and positive.

The weekly chart shows a near Marubozu bearish engulfing candle on the week. Price is fairly extended from the 20 week SMA, so not too unusual. The RSI is rolling over at a lower high in the bullish zone with the MACD positive and leveling. There is support lower at 620 and 615 followed by 613 and 609 then 604 and 600. There is resistance higher at 624 and 626 then 629 and 638. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

Heading into another big week in earnings season, equity markets look rattled following a 2 day move lower. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue to consolidate in its uptrend while Crude Oil drifts in consolidation. The US Dollar Index continues the intermediate term move to the downside near 3 year lows while US Treasuries continue to consolidate in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite looks to consolidate the move to the top of the broad consolidation area while Emerging Markets see their short term uptrend threatened.

The Volatility Index looks to continue to rise just above normal levels making life more difficult for equity markets to the upside and threatening a pullback. The charts of the SPY and QQQ are breaking their short term moving averages for the first time since late April and look ripe for more downside. The IWM is slightly weaker as it drops below its 50 day SMA. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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