SPY Trends and Influencers July 26, 2025

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw heading into the second week of earnings season, equity markets continued to show strength, holding and making new highs. Elsewhere, looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue to consolidate in its uptrend while Crude Oil ($USO) drifted in consolidation. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) continued a short term move to the downside at 3 year lows while US Treasuries ($TLT) consolidated in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to consolidate the mini break higher while Emerging Markets ($EEM) continued their break to the upside.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue in the normal range making life easier for equity markets to the upside. The charts of the $SPY and $QQQ were showing strength on both timeframes as they continued to print new all-time highs. The $IWM continued to lag the moves in the SPY and QQQ in price but was looking stronger as it moved higher as well.

The week played out with Gold bumping up to the top of the consolidation range before reversing while Crude Oil dropped toward support. The US Dollar found very short term support at the end of the week while Treasuries caught a bid early but stalled. The Shanghai Composite continued the break out higher while Emerging Markets made a new 3½ year high before profit taking at the end of the week.

The Volatility Index fell to a 5 month low, fueling the equity markets to new all-time highs. This resulted in the SPY printing a new all-time high every day of the week and the QQQ adding 2 all-time highs as well. Even the IWM saw some love printing a 5 month high before end of week profit taking. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week just off the Thursday all-time high. It moved higher Monday setting a new all-time high and then followed that up with 4 more all-time high closes for a clean sweep on the week. The RSI is making a higher high in overbought territory in the bullish zone with the MACD flat and positive.

The weekly chart shows a strong move up following a small body positive candle last week, with the Bollinger Bands® open higher. The RSI is rising in the bullish zone with the MACD positive and rising. There is support lower at 629 and 626 followed by 624 and 620 then 615 and 613. There is no resistance higher with the 238.2% extension of the retracement of the 2022 move lower at 662 above. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

Heading into the peak of earnings season and the FOMC meeting, equity markets continued to show strength, making new highs. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue to consolidate in its uptrend while Crude Oil drifts in consolidation. The US Dollar Index continues short term move to the downside at 3 year lows while US Treasuries consolidate in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite looks to move up to test the top of the broad consolidation area while Emerging Markets continue their short term uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks to continue in the normal range making life easier for equity markets to the upside. The charts of the SPY and QQQ continue to point to more strength on both timeframes as they continue to print new all-time highs. The IWM continues to make slower progress in its move higher. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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