SPY Trends and Influencers July 19, 2025

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on July 19th, 2025

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw heading into earnings season and the July options expiration week, equity markets exhibited continued strength holding at the highs. Elsewhere, looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue to consolidate in its uptrend while Crude Oil ($USO) drifted up in consolidation. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) continued to drift higher, in the short term move to the downside at more than 3 year lows while US Treasuries ($TLT) consolidated in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue the move higher in consolidation while Emerging Markets ($EEM) continued their break to the upside.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue in the normal range making life easier for equity markets to the upside. The charts of the $SPY and $QQQ were showing strength on both timeframes as they continued to print new all-time highs. The $IWM continued to lag the SPY and QQQ in recovery in price but was looking stronger as it moved higher as well. The classic “V” recovery continued to build in all 3 Index ETFs.

The week played out with Gold continuing the consolidating movement in a tight range between support and resistance while Crude Oil was smacked lower at resistance before an end of week bounce. The US Dollar met resistance at what would be another lower high while Treasuries found support at the bottom of the consolidation range. The Shanghai Composite consolidated at the break out high until moving higher again Friday while Emerging Markets finally broke the short term range and ran up to a new 3½ year high.

Volatility ticked up Monday but fell back all week to finish littled changed. This gave equities some early trouble but they reversed midweek and rose to new highs Thursday and Friday. This resulted in the SPY printing a new all-time high Thursday and 3 new highs from the QQQ with the IWM holding at 5 month highs. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week just off the Thursday all-time high. It held Monday and moved sideways most of the week, making a new all-time high Thursday before a drift lower Friday. The RSI is holding near overbought territory in the bullish zone with the MACD flat and positive.

The weekly chart shows a small body positive candle following the doji, with the Bollinger Bands® open higher. The RSI is holding in the bullish zone with the MACD positive and rising. There is support lower at 626 and 624.25 followed by 620 and 615 then 613 and 609. There is resistance above at 628. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

Heading into the second week of earnings season, equity markets continued to show strength, holding and making new highs. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue to consolidate in its uptrend while Crude Oil drifts in consolidation. The US Dollar Index continues short term move to the downside at 3 year lows while US Treasuries consolidate in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite looks to consolidate the mini break higher while Emerging Markets continue their break to the upside.

The Volatility Index looks to continue in the normal range making life easier for equity markets to the upside. The charts of the SPY and QQQ are showing strength on both timeframes as they continue to print new all-time highs. The IWM continues to lag the moves in the SPY and QQQ in price but is looking stronger as it moves higher as well. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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