SPY Trends and Influencers July 12, 2025

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on July 12th, 2025

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw closing out the 2nd Quarter and heading into the July 4th Holiday, equity markets exhibited renewed strength with strong moves higher. Elsewhere looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue to consolidate in its uptrend while Crude Oil ($USO) drifted up in consolidation. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) continued a short term move to the downside at more than 3 year lows while US Treasuries ($TLT) consolidated in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue the move higher in consolidation while Emerging Markets ($EEM) continued their break to the upside.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue in the normal range making life easier for equity markets to the upside. The charts of the $SPY and $QQQ were showing strength on both timeframes as they continued to print new all-time highs. The $IWM continued to lag the SPY and QQQ in recovery in price but was joining the party racing higher as well. The classic “V” recovery continued to build in all 3 Index ETFs.

The week played out with Gold consolidating over 3300 while Crude Oil met resistance in the move up and dropped late in the week. The US Dollar bounced up over a key moving average in the downtrend while Treasuries continued in consolidation in the long term downtrend. The Shanghai Composite continued higher printing a 3½ year high while Emerging Markets dropped and then held in an extremely narrow range all week.

The Volatility Index continued to hold just above the lows of the year. This allowed equities some range but with little news they drifted higher. This resulted in the SPY and QQQ each printing a new all-time high and the IWM reaching a nearly 5 month high before some profit taking Friday. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week at yet another all-time high. It dropped back Monday to fill the gap and continued lower Tuesday before catching a bid and moving back up and making a new all-time high Thursday. Friday saw a gap down met with buyers all day but not enough to close the gap. The RSI is holding in overbought territory in the bullish zone with the MACD flat and positive.

The weekly chart shows a near doji candle on the week, but with the Bollinger Bands® open higher. The RSI is rising in the bullish zone with the MACD positive and rising. There is support lower at 620 and 615 followed by 613 and 609 then 604 and 600. There is resistance above at 624.25 and 626. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

Heading into earnings season and the July options expiration week, equity markets exhibited continued strength holding at the highs. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue to consolidate in its uptrend while Crude Oil drifts up in consolidation. The US Dollar Index continues to drift higher in the short term move to the downside at more than 3 year lows while US Treasuries consolidate in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the move higher in consolidation while Emerging Markets continue their break to the upside.

The Volatility Index looks to continue in the normal range making life easier for equity markets to the upside. The charts of the SPY and QQQ are showing strength on both timeframes as they continue to print new all-time highs. The IWM continues to lag the SPY and QQQ in recovery in price but is looking stronger as it moves higher as well. The classic “V” recovery continues to build in all 3 Index ETFs. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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