SPY Trends and Influencers June 28, 2025

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on June 28th, 2025

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw with the FOMC meeting in the books, equity markets showed some profit taking and a drift slightly lower. Elsewhere looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue its uptrend while Crude Oil ($USO) joined it with a short term trend higher. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) continued a short term move to the downside at 3 year lows while US Treasuries ($TLT) consolidated in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue in consolidation while Emerging Markets ($EEM) were stalled in their break to the upside.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue in the normal range making life easier for equity markets to the upside. Their charts showed short term strength on the longer timeframe with possible digestion in the shorter timeframes. The $IWM continued to lag the $SPY and $QQQ in recovery in price. The classic “V” recovery continued to build in all 3 Index ETFs as the SPY and QQQ held just shy of their all-time highs but with possible short term pauses.

The week played out with Gold dropping back and giving up all the gains of the month while Crude Oil had its worst week in over 3 years. The US Dollar also continued lower to a new 3 year and 4 month low while Treasuries continued to hold at the bottom of a consolidation range. The Shanghai Composite broke consolidation to an 18 month high before profit taking while Emerging Markets rose to levels not seen since February 2022.

The Volatility Index dropped all week reaching levels not seen since February. This put a tailwind behind equities and they rose all week. This resulted in the SPY and the QQQ printing new all-time highs and the IWM at 4 month highs. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week sitting on the 20 day SMA after a down week. It rose Monday and then gapped up Tuesday to start a weeklong run higher. It reached a new intraday high Friday before some afternoon selling but managed to recovery and print a new all-time high close. The RSI is rising in the bullish zone with the MACD curling to cross up and positive.

The weekly chart shows a strong move higher out of consolidation piercing the 200% extension of the retracement of the 2022 drop. The RSI is rising into the bullish zone with the MACD positive and rising. There is support lower at 609 and 604 then 600 and 593 before 590 and 586. Resistance above is at 613 and 616.50. Short Term Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With just 1 trading day left in June and the 2nd Quarter, equity markets showed showed strength with strong moves higher. Elsewhere look for Gold to continue its uptrend while Crude Oil consolidates after a strong move lower. The US Dollar Index continues a short term move to the downside at more than 3 year lows while US Treasuries consolidate in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the move higher in consolidation while Emerging Markets resume their break to the upside in consolidation.

The Volatility Index looks to continue in the normal range making life easier for equity markets to the upside. The charts of the SPY and QQQ show short term strength both timeframes. The IWM continues to lag the SPY and QQQ in recovery in price. The classic “V” recovery continues to build in all 3 Index ETFs as the SPY joins the QQQ making a fresh all-time highs. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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