SPY Trends and Influencers June 21, 2025

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on June 21st, 2025

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw with the FOMC meeting looming, equity markets showed continued resilience until bombs started flying in the Middle East. Elsewhere looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue its uptrend while Crude Oil ($USO) was close to testing a reversal of the trend lower. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) continued a short term move to the downside at 3 year lows while US Treasuries ($TLT) consolidated in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue in consolidation while Emerging Markets ($EEM) broke to the upside.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue in the normal range making life easier for equity markets to the upside. Their charts showed short term strength on the longer timeframe with strength also returning into the shorter timeframes. The $IWM continued to lag the $SPY and $QQQ in recovery in price and the shift to bullish momentum on the longer timeframe. The classic “V” recovery continued to build in all 3 Index ETFs as the SPY and QQQ closed in on their all-time highs but with possible short term pauses.

The week played out with Gold moving in a tight range in consolidation just under the all-time high while Crude Oil continued a move to the upside starting a short term trend. The US Dollar stalled in an attempt to bounce while Treasuries continued to consolidate in their long trend lower. The Shanghai Composite also remained in a sideways motion in a narrow range while Emerging Markets saw digestion in their nascent uptrend.

The Volatility Index held in a tight range near the top of the normal zone. Despite this, equities could not find a catalyst to move higher. This resulted in the SPY, the QQQ and the IWM all trading in narrow range in what was unremarkable trading for an FOMC week. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week just off the early June high. It jumped back to that area Monday and then drifted lower Tuesday and Wednesday into the FOMC decision and press conference. It rebounded at the open Friday after the Juneteenth Holiday but quickly gave up to the gains to close lower on the week. The RSI is pulling back to the midline in the bullish zone with the MACD also dropping and positive.

The weekly chart shows a confirmation of last week’s possible reversal candle, but with very little damage. The RSI is holding over the midline just under the bullish zone with the MACD positive and rising. There is support lower at 593 and 590 then 586 and 581 before 574.50 and 571.50. Resistance above is at 600 then 604 and 609 before 613. Short Term Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With the FOMC meeting in the books, equity markets showed some profit taking and a drift slightly lower. Elsewhere look for Gold to continue its uptrend while Crude Oil joins it with a short term trend higher. The US Dollar Index continues a short term move to the downside at 3 year lows while US Treasuries consolidate in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue in consolidation while Emerging Markets may be stalled in their break to the upside.

The Volatility Index looks to continue in the normal range making life easier for equity markets to the upside. Their charts show short term strength on the longer timeframe with possible digestion in the shorter timeframes. The IWM continues to lag the SPY and QQQ in recovery in price. The classic “V” recovery continues to build in all 3 Index ETFs as the SPY and QQQ hold just shy of their all-time highs but with possible short term pauses. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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