SPY Trends and Influencers June 14, 2025

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on June 14th, 2025

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw with the June non-farm payroll report in the rearview mirror, equity markets showed continued progress moving back towards their all-time highs. Elsewhere looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue its uptrend while Crude Oil ($USO) continued to trend lower. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) continued a short term move to the downside while US Treasuries ($TLT) consolidated in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue in consolidation while Emerging Markets ($EEM) broke to the upside.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue in the normal range making life easier for equity markets to the upside. Their charts showed short term strength on the longer timeframe with strength also returning into the shorter timeframes. The $IWM continued to lag the $SPY and $QQQ in recovery in price and the shift to bullish momentum on the longer timeframe. The classic “V” recovery continued to build in all 3 Index ETFs as the SPY and QQQ closed in on their all-time highs.

The week played out as benign until an Israeli attack on Iran changed that Friday. It saw Gold pushing to the upside and settling near the all-time high while Crude Oil broke its consolidation in the downtrend to the upside as well to close at a 2 month high. The US Dollar dropped to a new 3 year low while Treasuries rose in their consolidation range. The Shanghai Composite met resistance at the top of the consolidation range while Emerging Markets met late week resistance and sold off Friday.

The Volatility Index held in the teens until it ticked up Friday. Equities held in a narrow range but saw a downside drift to end the week. This was not enough to end the uptrend for the SPY and QQQ, but as has been the case the past few years, caused more damage to the IWM. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week at a 3½ month high and just short of the all-time high. It continued higher Monday and Tuesday and then stalled as it opened higher Wednesday but fell back. Thursday saw the drop reversed but then it ended the week giving up all the gains as we learned that Israel was being bombed. The RSI is level in the bullish zone with the MACD also level and positive.

The weekly chart shows a upper shadow, a possible topping candle. The RSI is holding over the midline just under the bullish zone with the MACD positive and rising. There is support lower at 593 and 590 then 586 and 581 before 574.50 and 571.50. Resistance above is at 600 then 604 and 609 before 613. Short Term Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With the FOMC meeting coming up next week, equity markets showed continued resilience until bombs started flying in the Middle East. Elsewhere look for Gold to continue its uptrend while Crude Oil is close to testing a reversal of the trend lower. The US Dollar Index continues a short term move to the downside at 3 year lows while US Treasuries consolidate in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue in consolidation while Emerging Markets break to the upside.

The Volatility Index looks to continue in the normal range making life easier for equity markets to the upside. Their charts show short term strength on the longer timeframe with strength also returning into the shorter timeframes. The IWM continues to lag the SPY and QQQ in recovery in price and the shift to bullish momentum on the longer timeframe. The classic “V” recovery continues to build in all 3 Index ETFs as the SPY and QQQ close in on their all-time highs but with possible short term pauses. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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