SPY Trends and Influencers May 24, 2025

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw with the May Options Expiration in the books, equity markets showed strength gapping up and then running higher. Elsewhere looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue its digestion in the uptrend while Crude Oil ($USO) continued to trend lower. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) continued a short term move to the upside while US Treasuries ($TLT) consolidated in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue in consolidation while Emerging Markets ($EEM) were on the cusp of breaking consolidation to the upside.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue to drop and was in the normal range, making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. Their charts showed short term strength on both timeframes. On the shorter timeframe the $IWM, the $QQQ and the $SPY were breaking higher with a shift to bullish momentum. On the longer timeframe the classic “V” recovery continued to build in all 3 Index ETFs as the SPY and QQQ closed in on their all-time highs.

The week played out with Gold moving back towards its record highs while Crude Oil consolidated at the lows. The US Dollar weakened while Treasuries fell back to the 2023 lows. The Shanghai Composite continued in consolidation while Emerging Markets continued higher.

The Volatility Index found a bottom and held until a bounce Friday. This took away from the support of equities and they moved lower. This resulted in the SPY and the QQQ falling back to the gaps from 2 weeks ago with the IWM leading lower, closing its gap. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week at a 2½ month high. It inched higher Monday and then started a 4 day pullback to the 200 day SMA Friday morning. It ended the week with a strong move higher all day after a gap down open. The RSI is pulling back in the bullish zone with the MACD rolling over towards a cross down and positive.

The weekly chart shows a consolidation candle in the range of last week’s holding over the 20 week SMA. The RSI is holding over the midline with the MACD negative but crossed up. There is support lower at 581 and 574.50 then 571.50 and 565.50 before 556.50 and 549.50. Resistance above is at 585 and 590 then 593 and 600 before 604 and 609. Short Term Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

Heading into the unofficial start of summer, equity markets showed they could use a long weekend to recover. Elsewhere look for Gold to continue its uptrend while Crude Oil continues to trend lower. The US Dollar Index continues a short term move to the downside while US Treasuries consolidate in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue in consolidation while Emerging Markets remain on the cusp of breaking consolidation to the upside.

The Volatility Index looks to continue in the normal range, but with an upside bias, removing the stimulus for equity markets to the upside. Their charts show short term strength on the longer timeframe with digestion in the shorter timeframes. The IWM continues to lag the SPY and QQQ in recovery in price and the shift to bullish momentum on the longer timeframe. The classic “V” recovery continues to build in all 3 Index ETFs as the SPY and QQQ close in on their all-time highs. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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