4 Trade Ideas for American Express: Bonus Idea

Here is your Bonus Idea with links to the full Top Ten:

American Express, $AXP, comes into the week after printing a hammer candle Friday following the pullback to touch the 200 day SMA. It was the first touch at the 200 day SMA since November 2023. The drop Friday filled the gap from November 2024 and leaves one open above to 293.11. The RSI is dipping into oversold territory with the MACD negative and falling. Hammer candles signify indecision and are often reversal candles under these circumstances but need to be confirmed with a higher close Monday. There is resistance at 276.25 and 282 then 286 and 292.50 before 300 and 307. Support lower is at 268.50. Short interest is low at 1.2%.

The stock pays a dividend with an annual yield of 1.2% and will trade ex-dividend on April 4th. The company is expected to report earnings next on April 17th. The March options chain shows the biggest open interest at the 250 strike on the put side. On the call side it is biggest at 280 and 290. In the April chain, covering the earnings report, open interest is spread from 310 to 240 on the put side, biggest at 300, 280 and 260. On the call side it builds from 280 to a peak at 320 then fades to 350. Finally, in the May chain, open interest is light on the put side and biggest at 320 on the call side.

American Express, Ticker: $AXP

Trade Idea 1: Buy the stock on a close over 276.50 with a stop at 268.50.

Trade Idea 2: Buy the stock on a close over 276.50 and add an April 270/260 Put Spread ($4.30) while selling the May 310 Call ($3.40).

Trade Idea 3: Buy the March/April 280 Call Calendar ($5.40) while selling the April 250 Put ($4.45).

Trade Idea 4: Buy the May 250/280/300 Call Spread Risk Reversal ($1.00).

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After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which with the first week of March in the books, saw equity markets take a beating as the first tariffs were enforced.

Elsewhere look for Gold to continue its consolidation just under all-time highs while Crude Oil drops in consolidation. The US Dollar Index continues to move to the downside while US Treasuries consolidate in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the consolidation while Emerging Markets consolidate in a broad messy chop.

The Volatility Index looks to rise, making the path easier for equity markets to the downside. The charts of the SPY and QQQ continue to look strong on the longer timeframe. On the shorter timeframe both the QQQ and SPY are weak and vulnerable for more downside. This could shift the long term look over the next few weeks. The IWM looks weak on both timeframes, leading to the downside. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

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