SPY Trends and Influencers March 15, 2025

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on March 15th, 2025

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw with the first week of March in the books, equity markets took a beating as the first tariffs were enforced. Elsewhere looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue its consolidation just under all-time highs while Crude Oil ($USO) dropped in consolidation. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) continued to move to the downside while US Treasuries ($TLT) consolidated in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue the consolidation while Emerging Markets ($EEM) consolidated in a broad messy chop.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to rise, making the path easier for equity markets to the downside. The charts of the $SPY and $QQQ continued to look strong on the longer timeframe. On the shorter timeframe both the QQQ and SPY were weak and vulnerable for more downside. This could shift the long term look over the next few weeks. The $IWM looked weak on both timeframes, leading to the downside.

The week played out with Gold breaking consolidation and moving to the upside over $3000/oz while Crude Oil found support at the September low and held. The US Dollar also found support, at the November low, and consolidated while Treasuries drifted lower. The Shanghai Composite pushed up to a 3 month high while Emerging Markets tightened the range of the chop.

Volatility topped Monday and fell back the rest of the week, but remained elevated. This knocked equities lower Monday and then they held in a range the rest of the week. This resulted in the SPY reaching a 10% pullback and the QQQ dropping more than 13% from its high. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week falling back from the all-time high in mid-February. It continued lower Monday and then held in a mostly sideways and slightly lower consolidation the rest of the week. By Thursday it had hit a 10% drawdown from the high and then proceeded to post its best day since November on Friday. It had touched a 61.8% retracement of the move higher since August 2023 when it bounced. The RSI is rising off of oversold with the MACD leveling and negative on the daily chart.

The weekly chart shows a pullback to the 161.8% extension of the retracement of the 2022 drop from a touch at the 200% extension at the all-time high. It printed a Hammer candle, often a reversal signal, and climbed back to hold at the 50 week SMA. The RSI has reset down near the bottom of the bullish zone with the MACD positive and dropping. There is resistance at 565.50 and 569 then 571.50 and 574.50 before 581 and 585. Support lower is at 556.50 and 549.50 then 545.75 and 542 then 540. Pullback in Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

Heading into the March options expiration and FOMC meeting, equity markets showed possible exhaustion in the pullbacks of the past 4 weeks. Elsewhere look for Gold to continue its bull run higher while Crude Oil consolidates at the bottom of a broad range. The US Dollar Index continues pullback in the consolidation zone while US Treasuries consolidate in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue in consolidation in the uptrend while Emerging Markets chop sideways in consolidation.

The Volatility Index looks to remain elevated but moving lower making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. Their charts have now experienced some damage on the longer timeframe but remain long term bullish. On the shorter timeframe both the QQQ and SPY have found support at key levels that could lead to a reversal. Let’s wait for proof before acting. The IWM is broken on the shorter timeframe and hanging on in the longer timeframe. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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