SPY Trends and Influencers January 11, 2025

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on January 11th, 2025

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw ringing in the New Year and ringing out a fabulous 2024, that the week showed some disappointment in equity markets year end and an early year rebound. Elsewhere looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue to consolidate the major move higher while Crude Oil ($USO) rose in consolidation in the lower end of a broad range. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) looked to continue the breakout higher while US Treasuries ($TLT) consolidated at 14 month lows.

The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to reverse its uptrend with a break lower while Emerging Markets ($EEM) were reversing their uptrend. The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to remain low making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. The charts of the $SPY and $QQQ continued to look strong on the longer timeframe. On the shorter timeframe both looked a little weaker but finding support. The $IWM was recovering, and so far, maintaining the uptrend.

The week played out with Gold moving higher in consolidation all week while Crude Oil found some strength Friday and moved to 3 month highs. The US Dollar continued to move up to a 26 month high while Treasuries resumed the move lower. The Shanghai Composite continued its short term move lower while Emerging Markets sank to a 5 month low.

Volatility ticked higher on the week testing the 20s. This put a damper on the beginning of the year bounce in equities and they fell back. This resulted in the SPY dropping back to the November election gap, the QQQ retesting a major Fibonacci extension and the IWM nearly tagging its 200 day SMA for the first time in 13 months. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week bouncing off support at the December low on the daily chart. It continued higher Monday but could not make a higher high and fell back the rest of the week. It ended Friday at a 2 month low at the 100 day SMA and into the Election gap. The Bollinger Bands® have shifted lower on the daily chart. The RSI is dipping into bearish territory and making lower highs while the MACD is negative and falling.

The weekly chart ended with a bearish engulfing candle at the 20 week SMA. This is the first touch at the 20 week SMA in 4 months. The RSI is rolling lower toward the midline in the bullish zone with the MACD crossed down and falling but positive. There is support lower at 580 and 574.50 then 571.50 and 565.50 before 561.50 and 556.50. Resistance higher is found at 585 and 590 then 593 and 600 before 604 and 609. Pullback in Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

Heading into the January options expiry and the start of earnings season, equity markets showed some short term weakness. Elsewhere look for Gold to continue its rise in consolidation while Crude Oil consolidates in the upper half of a broad range. The US Dollar Index continues to drift to the upside while US Treasuries resume their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the short term move lower while Emerging Markets consolidate continue their downward reversal.

The Volatility Index looks to remain on the edge of low to slightly elevated making the path easier for equity markets to the downside. Their charts are starting to show some cracks on the weekly chart, but with the QQQ remaining strong, on the longer timeframe. On the shorter timeframe the SPY, the QQQ and the IWM all are making lower lows and looking weaking. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

Join the Premium Users and you can view the Full Version with 20 detailed charts and analysis: Macro Week in Review/Preview January 10, 2025

If you like what you see above sign up for deeper analysis and trading strategy by using the Get Premium button above. As always you can see details of individual charts and more on my StockTwits page.

The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

blog comments powered by Disqus