SPY Trends and Influencers December 7, 2024

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on December 7th, 2024

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw With November in the books, equity markets showed strength with the SPY recording a record high close. Elsewhere look for Gold ($GLD) to consolidate in its uptrend while Crude Oil ($GLD) consolidates in a broad range. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) falls back into consolidation while US Treasuries ($TLT) hold in consolidation. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) remains in a short term pullback while Emerging Markets ($EEM) are in a short term uptrend.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) remains low and stable making it easier for markets to move higher. Their charts look strong, especially on the longer timeframe. On the shorter timeframe both the $QQQ and $IWM are moving toward a retest of their all-time highs while the $SPY is leading higher with a new all-time high.

The week played out with Gold consolidating in a tight range while Crude Oil held in the lower end of its consolidation range. The US Dollar offered a weak bounce early that faded while Treasuries probed higher in consolidation. The Shanghai Composite continued to consolidate the post-stimulus move higher while Emerging Markets continued to round out a bottom from the pullback to support.

Volatility drifted lower on the week ending at a nearly 5 month low. This put wind to the backs of equities and the SPY and QQQ rose to new all-time highs multiple times during the week. The IWM however continued to pullback from the November top retest. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week after printing a new all-time high to finish the prior week. It continued to move higher to start the week, adding 3 more all-time highs Monday through Wednesday before a small pullback Thursday. Friday saw a move higher to finish a strong week at the all-time high. The Bollinger Bands® on the daily chart are open higher now as the RSI is deep in the bullish zone with the MACD positive and rising.

On the weekly chart it prints a third week higher with price following the upper of the Bollinger Bands. The RSI is in the bullish zone with the MACD positive and rising as price approaches the 200% extension of the retracement of the 2022 correction near 612. There is no resistance above 609. Support lower is at 604.20 and 600 then 593 and 590 before 585 and 580. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With the first week of December in the books, equity markets showed strength with tech and large cap printing new all-time highs 4 of the 5 days. The small caps held their ground as well. Elsewhere look for Gold to continue to consolidate in the uptrend while Crude Oil consolidates in a broad range. The US Dollar Index continues to drift to the downside in consolidation while US Treasuries hold in broad consolidation. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the short term move higher while Emerging Markets continue their uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks to remain very low and stabilizing making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. Their charts look strong, especially on the longer timeframe. On the shorter timeframe both the QQQ and SPY continue to look powerful as they rack up more new all-time highs. The IWM is taking a pause in a bull flag, preparing for a possible all-time high as well. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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