SPY Trends and Influencers November 23, 2024

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on November 23rd, 2024

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw with the November options expiration in the books, equity markets showed some weakness as they reacted to Chairman Powell’s comments about not being in a hurry to cut rates. Elsewhere looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue its pullback in the uptrend while Crude Oil ($USO) consolidated at the bottom of a broad range. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) continued to drift to the upside while US Treasuries ($TLT) held in consolidation.

The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue the short term move higher while Emerging Markets ($EEM) maintained their short term uptrend. The Volatility Index ($VIX) looked to remain low making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. Their charts continued to look strong, especially on the longer timeframe. On the shorter timeframe the $SPY, $QQQ and $IWM were all digesting the post-election euphoria and coming back to retest the breakouts.

The week played out with Gold busting out of consolidation and chugging higher while Crude Oil found some strength and bounced slightly higher in consolidation. The US Dollar continued to climb to ending at a 2 year high while Treasuries consolidated in a tight range. The Shanghai Composite held its ground until a drop back to support Friday while Emerging Markets trickled to the bottom of a rising channel.

Volatility ticked up early in the week and then held in the mid-teens. This slowed equities early in the week but they drifted higher later, led by the small caps. This resulted in the SPY filling the gap down from last week and the QQQ closing its gap to a narrow hole, while the IWM moved back towards its November high. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week pulling back to the 20 day SMA on the daily chart. It held there through Wednesday before starting to separate from it Thursday. Friday followed through to the upside. The RSI is rising in the bullish zone with the MACD curling to cross up and positive.

The weekly chart printed an inside week holding near the top of the move higher 2 weeks ago. It has a RSI in the bullish zone with the MACD rising and positive as the Bollinger Bands® open higher. There is resistance at 600 above. Support lower is at 593 and 590 then 585 and 580 before 574.50 and 571.50. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

Heading into the Thanksgiving shortened holiday week, equity markets showed strength recovering much or all of last week’s falls. Elsewhere look for Gold to continue its uptrend while Crude Oil consolidates at the bottom of a broad range. The US Dollar Index continues to drift to the upside while US Treasuries hold in consolidation. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the short term move higher while Emerging Markets cling to support in the short term uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks to remain low and stable making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. Their charts look strong, especially the SPY and QQQ on the longer timeframe. On the shorter timeframe both the QQQ and SPY are working back higher but it is the IWM taking the lead with strength. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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