SPY Trends and Influencers October 26, 2024

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw with the October Options Expiration in the books, equity markets showed some strength battling against a narrative of slower Fed cuts. Elsewhere looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue its uptrend while Crude Oil ($USO) dropped in consolidation. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) might reverse the short term uptrend while US Treasuries ($TLT) pulled back in consolidation. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to drop back from its spike while Emerging Markets ($EEM) stalled in their move higher.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to remain low making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. Their charts looked strong, especially on the longer timeframe. On the shorter timeframe the $SPY was leading the way higher with the $QQQ slowly battling back to its high and the $IWM poking its head up perhaps to make another attempt at a run higher.

The week played out with Gold making new highs Monday and Tuesday a small pullback while Crude Oil found support and managed a small move higher. The US Dollar met resistance at the July highs and held while Treasuries found support at the late July lows and consolidated. The Shanghai Composite mustered a small bounce at the September month end gap while Emerging Markets continued to leak lower in a tightening range.

Volatility settled to the middle of the range since August at low levels. This relieved some pressure from equities and shifted some positive flow back to tech stocks. This resulted in the SPY holding near all-time highs while the QQQ rose to its second highest close, a 2½ month high, while the IWM pulled back from 35 month highs. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week at an all-time high. It held just under that level Monday and then drifted lower giving up just under 1% on the week. The daily chart shows price holding over the 20 day SMA, a bullish stance. The RSI is also holding in the bullish zone with the MACD dropping but positive. The Bollinger Bands® are shifting back to neutral.

On the weekly chart the 6 week run higher is over but clearly not the uptrend. The Bollinger Bands are pointing higher with the RSI in the bullish zone and the MACD flat and positive. There is resistance higher at 580 and 585. Support lower is at 574.50 and 571.50 then 565.50 and 556.50 before 549.50. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With just one full week of trading to go ahead of the election and November FOMC meeting, equity markets will go into next week after one of choppy trading. Elsewhere look for Gold to continue its uptrend while Crude Oil consolidates at the bottom of a broad range. The US Dollar Index continues to move to the upside while US Treasuries pullback in consolidation. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the short term move higher while Emerging Markets consolidate in their young uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks to remain low and stable making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. Their charts look strong, especially on the longer timeframe. On the shorter timeframe both the QQQ and SPY have reset on momentum measures as they move sideways. The IWM continues to disappoint with another sputtered break out reversing. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

Join the Premium Users and you can view the Full Version with 20 detailed charts and analysis: Macro Week in Review/Preview October 25, 2024

If you like what you see above sign up for deeper analysis and trading strategy by using the Get Premium button above. As always you can see details of individual charts and more on my StockTwits page.

The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

blog comments powered by Disqus
Dragonfly Caps Blog