SPY Trends and Influencers October 5, 2024

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw with only 1 trading day left in the 3rd Quarter of 2024, equity markets looked positive. Elsewhere looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue its uptrend while Crude Oil ($USO) continued to be biased to the downside. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) continued to drift to the downside while US Treasuries ($TLT) remained on the edge of a reversal to an uptrend. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue the stimulus fueled move higher while Emerging Markets ($EEM) began a new uptrend.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to remain low and stable making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. Their charts looked strong, especially on the shorter timeframe with the $SPY, $IWM and $QQQ all biased to move higher. On the longer timeframe both the QQQ and SPY also looked better to the upside while the IWM had some work to do to get through resistance.

The week played out with Gold consolidating the move up to 2700 in a bull flag while Crude Oil reversed and rose to confirm a double bottom. The US Dollar exploded to the upside while Treasuries fell back to two month lows. The Shanghai Composite ripped to the upside Monday before markets closed for the rest of the week while Emerging Markets moved up to 31 month highs.

Volatility ticked up during the week but held short of the September spike level. This kept equities in a range for the large caps and tech sectors with the small caps feeling pressure and moving lower. This resulted in the SPY holding near the all-time high, and with the QQQ, above the August top. The IWM continued to extend what is now a long bull flag. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week just off the all-time high set the Thursday before. It rose Monday to close the 3rd Quarter at a new all-time high and then consolidated in a pullback the next three days. It held over the July high on the daily chart and then moved higher again Friday to close just below Monday’s high. The RSI is rising in the bullish zone with the MACD curling to cross back up and positive.

The weekly chart shows a 4th weekly candle in a row to the upside. There is starting to be some separation with the 161.8% extension of the retracement of the 2022 downward leg. The RSI is in the bullish zone but possibly making a lower high for a momentum divergence, while the MACD is flat and positive. There is resistance at 574.50 and a Measured Move to 580 above that. Support lower is at 571.50 and 565.50 then 561.50 and 556.50 before 549.50 and 545.75. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With the 3rd Quarter in the books and the September Non-Farm Payroll report posted, equities had a seesaw week. Elsewhere look for Gold to continue its uptrend while Crude Oil possibly creates a new uptrend. The US Dollar Index continues to move to the upside in consolidation while US Treasuries fall back into consolidation. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue higher while Emerging Markets continue their young uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks to remain below normal making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. The charts of the SPY and QQQ look strong, especially on the longer timeframe. On the shorter timeframe both the QQQ and SPY look ready to break flags to the upside. The IWM continues to hold near the top of consolidation. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

Join the Premium Users and you can view the Full Version with 20 detailed charts and analysis: Macro Week in Review/Preview October 4, 2024

If you like what you see above sign up for deeper analysis and trading strategy by using the Get Premium button above. As always you can see details of individual charts and more on my StockTwits page.

The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

blog comments powered by Disqus
Dragonfly Caps Blog