SPY Trends and Influencers September 28, 2024

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on September 28th, 2024

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw heading into the last full week of September, equity markets showed strength following the FOMC’s first rate cut in 4 years. Elsewhere looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue its uptrend while Crude Oil ($USO) bounced in its downtrend. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) continued to hold lower in consolidation while US Treasuries ($TLT) were failing at levels that could reverse to an uptrend. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue the bounce in the downtrend while Emerging Markets ($EEM) rose in consolidation.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to remain low and stabilizing making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. Their charts looked strong, especially on the longer timeframe with the $SPY making a new all-time high Thursday, breaking a range. The $IWM and $QQQ were holding up on the edge of a range break to the upside. On the shorter timeframe the SPY was also strong with the IWM and QQQ building momentum as price reached the August highs.

The week played out with Gold making 4 consecutive new all-time highs before Friday profit taking while Crude Oil met resistance and fell back. The US Dollar continued to consolidate at the lows of the year while Treasuries fell back but found support late in the week. The Shanghai Composite rocketed higher following government stimulus while Emerging Markets jumped ending at a 2½ year high.

Volatility drifted lower to the support levels from August. This gave equities some energy and the SPY and QQQ moved higher all week. This resulted in the SPY printing new all-time highs Tuesday and Thursday before some Friday profit taking. The IWM was weaker falling early and then rebonding to end slightly higher on the week. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week after breaking to a new all-time high Thursday of the previous week and holding over the previous high on Friday profit taking. It held over the 2 month resistance area, at the 161.8% extension of the retracement of the 2022 drop, and made two new all-time highs Tuesday and Thursday before a slight pullback Friday. This gives a target to 592 on a Measured Move higher. The RSI is level in the bullish zone with the MACD positive and rising.

The weekly chart shows a second small move to the upside. The RSI is in the bullish zone but if it stalls here may be opening a negative divergence while the MACD is positive and flat. There is resistance above at 574.50. Support below 571.50 is at 565.50 and 561.50 then 556.50 and 549.50 before 545.75 and 542. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With only 1 trading day left in the 3rd Quarter of 2024, equity markets look positive. Elsewhere look for Gold to continue its uptrend while Crude Oil continues to be biased to the downside. The US Dollar Index continues to drift to the downside while US Treasuries remain on the edge of a reversal to an uptrend. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the stimulus fueled move higher while Emerging Markets begin a new uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks to remain low and stable making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. Their charts look strong, especially on the shorter timeframe with the SPY, IWM and QQQ all biased to move higher. On the longer timeframe both the QQQ and SPY also look better to the upside while the IWM has some work to do to get through resistance. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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