4 Trade Ideas for Progressive: Bonus Idea

Here is your Bonus Idea with links to the full Top Ten:

Progressive, $PGR, comes into the week at resistance at the gap down following the October drop. It has a RSI rising into the bullish zone with the MACD negative but rising. There is resistance at 227 and 229.50 then 236 and 240 before 247 and 250. Support lower is at 221.50 and 218.50. Short interest is low at 1%. The stock pays a dividend with an annual yield of 0.18% and has traded ex-dividend since October 2nd.

The company is expected to report earnings next on November 19th. The November options chain has biggest open interest at the 225 put strike and the 240 call and is implying a $7.85 move by Friday. The December chain has biggest open interest at the 210 put and 225 call strikes. Finally, the January chain has biggest open interest at 250 then 220 on the put side and at 260 on the call side.

Progressive, Ticker: $PGR

Trade Idea 1: Buy the stock on a move over 227 with a stop at 218.50.

Trade Idea 2: Buy the stock on a move over 227 and add a November 220/215 Put Spread ($2.00) while selling the December 235 Calls ($1.65).

Trade Idea 3: Buy the November/December 235 Call Calendar ($3.10) and sell the December 210 Put ($2.20).

Trade Idea 4: Buy the January 210/230/250 Call Spread Risk Reversal $2.50).

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After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which with the November Options Expiration and Government Shutdown in the rearview mirror, saw equity markets showing continued jitters, falling in a week with Fed speak and no Government data.

Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue the uptrend with some short term consolidation while Crude Oil holds lower in consolidation. The US Dollar Index continues the short term drift to the downside, as it tries to round out a bottom, while US Treasuries continue in consolidation, putting at risk of an intermediate term reversal higher. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the uptrend at 10 year highs while Emerging Markets stall in their uptrend pulling back from 4 year highs.

The Volatility Index looks to continue to inch up in the normal zone stalling the equity moves higher and setting them back. The charts of the SPY, the IWM and the QQQ remain strong on the longer timeframe but with some risk of a correction through time. On the shorter timeframe the SPY and QQQ have reset from the all-time highs to the 50 day SMA and are a risk for further downside, while the IWM looks most vulnerable to more downside. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

If you like what you see above sign up for deeper analysis and trading strategy by using the Get Premium button above. As always you can see details of individual charts and more on my StockTwits page.

The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

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