4 Trade Ideas for Caterpillar: Bonus Idea

Here is your Bonus Idea with links to the full Top Ten:

Caterpillar, $CAT, comes into the week at short term resistance in a pullback and over the 20 day SMA for the first time in over a month. The Bollinger Bands® are squeezed in, often a precursor to a move and it has retraced 38.2% of the last leg higher. It has a RSI at the midline and rising, a positive divergence, with the MACD crossed up and rising but negative. There is resistance at 333.50 and 337.50 then 351.50 and 355.50 before 364 and 373 with the all-time high at 379.30 above that. Support lower is at 330 and 325 then 321. Short interest is low at 2.4%.

The stock pays a dividend with an annual yield of 1.69% and will trade ex-dividend n July 24th. The company is expected to report earnings next on July 30th. The July options chain shows biggest open interest at the 330 strike on the put side and at the 350 call strike. The August chain shows open interest spread from 330 to 280, biggest at 290 then 310, on the put side. On the call side it is biggest at 330 then fades to 370. The September chain has biggest open interest at the 290 put and the 330 call strikes.

Caterpillar, Ticker: $CAT

Trade Idea 1: Buy the stock on a move over 333.50 with a stop at 321.

Trade Idea 2: Buy the stock on a move over 333.50 and add an August 320/310 Put Spread ($3.00) while selling the September 380 Call ($2.90).

Trade Idea 3: Buy the July/August 340 Call Calendar ($6.80) while selling the July 325 Puts ($2.70).

Trade Idea 4: Buy the September 320/340/370 Call Spread Risk Reversal (30 cents).

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After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which with the 2nd Quarter of 2024 in the books and heading into the holiday shortened week, saw equity markets showing resilience with a rebound from a pullback and large caps and tech names holding at the highs.

Elsewhere look for Gold to continue its consolidation after the record move higher while Crude Oil consolidates in a broad range. The US Dollar Index continues the short term move to the upside while US Treasuries continue in their secular downtrend. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the downtrend while Emerging Markets consolidate under long term resistance.

The Volatility Index looks to remain very low and stable making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. Their charts look strong, especially on the longer timeframe. On the shorter timeframe both the QQQ and SPY are showing signs of a possible reset on momentum measures as both are extended. The IWM continues to lag in a long term channel. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

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