Low Volume Everywhere, But Not Here

Monday was one of the lowest volume days on the the stock market since the history of mankind. The $SPY traded about 1/2 of its normal volume while the $IWM managed about 65% and the $QQQ 57%. Even the metals space was light with $GLD trading 80% of the normal turnover, $JJC 22% and $SLV 70%. Even crude oil was light with the $USO trading less than 40% and Brent $BNO trading only 1100% of normal volume. What? Wait a minute. $BNO traded 11 times normal volume on one of the light days since forever? What is going on there? First, $BNO is not a heavily trade ETF at only about 29,000 shares per day on average, so the 269,000 that traded is not a panic or mania. But is there something going on there? Lets look at the price action.

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The daily chart is not so interesting, moving sideways since August in a $3 range between 41.70 and 44.70. But is that odd in itself with the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and West Texas Intermediate Crude in an uptrend? Maybe, but this is not the place to look for news to explain shit. We look at price action. The clue may be in the weekly chart. The longer view shows an ascending triangle that has been holding tightly against the top rail as resistance. With the bottom support tightening up it may be just like a bull in the chute ready for the gate to open to explode out. Which side is the gate on the top or bottom is anybody’s guess, but the momentum indicators RSI and MACD both support a move to the upside. A break over the resistance zone, over 44.70 would target a move to 58 on a conservative measure. That is enough to create some excitement isn’t it?

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