Top Trade Ideas for the Week February 29, 2016: Bonus Idea

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Here is your Bonus Idea with links to the full Top Ten:

CF Industries, $CF, had a long run lower from a peak at 70.32 in July 2015. The stock lost over 62% of its market cap in that span. That stinks. But seems just as we are entering the spring farming season the stock may be ready to sprout a new leg higher. The initial bounce off of support to 34.50 resulted in a slight pullback. This made for a higher low. And the push back higher Friday added a higher high. This is the genesis of an uptrend. The Measured Move higher would give a first target of about 39.5.

This would be just under resistance at 40 with resistance higher at 43.50, near a 38.2% retracement of the down leg, and 46.50 followed by 48.20 and 50.55 before 53.50, and a 61.8% retracement. The momentum indicator, RSI is bullish and pushing higher with the MACD also bullish and rising. Even the Bollinger BandsĀ® are opening to allow a move higher. Short interest is moderate in the stock at 5.3%. The company is expected to report earnings next on May 4th.

Looking at the options chains shows weekly expirations for this name. This week sees minor open interest but biggest size at 31 below and 35.5 above on the call side. The monthly March contract shows very large open interest on the put side at the 30 strike, and the some size but much smaller at 35 on the call side. The April chain has big open interest at the 35 strike on the put side. And moving to the May chain, beyond earnings, sees the biggest open interest at the 40 and 45 strikes on the call side.

CF Industries, Ticker: $CF
cf

Trade Idea 1: Buy the stock as it holds over 34.25 with a stop at 31.

Trade Idea 2: Buy the stock as it holds over 34.25 with a May 30/35/40 Put Spread collar (85 cents).

Trade Idea 3: Buy the May 35/ March 37.5 Call Diagonal ($2.60).

Trade Idea 4: Buy the May 30/40 bullish Risk Reversal (7 cents).

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After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which with just a Leap Day left in February sees the Equity markets looking ready to spring higher.

Elsewhere look for Gold to continue to consolidate in its uptrend while Crude Oil consolidates the recent move higher. The US Dollar Index also looks to continue to move sideways but with an upward bias short term while US Treasuries are showing signs of topping in their uptrend. The Shanghai Composite seems ready for more downside, at least in the short term, while Emerging Markets are biased to the upside next week.

Volatility looks to continue the move lower towards normal levels easing the pressure for the equity index ETF’s SPY, IWM and QQQ. Their charts all look better to the upside in the short term, with very constructive movement higher out of the 2016 range for the SPY and IWM. The QQ lags behind but only just slightly. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

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