The Curious Case of Crude Oil

Trump got elected and all assets moved higher, including Crude Oil. Crude oil continued higher until it met resistance that had turned it back in October and May before that. But this time it broke through. A break out to new highs. Traders typically see that and look for continuation. But that did not happen. Instead Crude Oil ran sideways….. for 3 months!

In March, Crude Oil finally broke down, giving up the meager break out and dove lower. The chart below shows some interesting things since that fall began. The pullback brought Crude to the rising trend support line that appeared with the November reversal and held. A third higher low was formed. A small bounce from there and pullback to the low again held a second time. With the reversal over the mid March bounce, a double bottom was confirmed, and it has continued higher.

Coming to the end of the week Crude Oil is now back at that prior resistance level following a strong move Thursday. The rest of the chart supports a second attempt at a break out to the upside. The Bollinger Bands® are opening up. The RSI is rising back into the bullish zone. The MACD has been rising and is about to turn positive. Will it break out and continue this time? It is time to pay attention.

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The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

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