The Bond Rally Is Not Over
- Posted by Greg Harmon
- on October 16th, 2012
Yes, there is debate and discussion about the the trade of the century reversing and US Treasuries finally falling in price. That is looking more and more possible as the weeks go on. In fact I am short some Treasury exposure via the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund, $TLT. But where Treasuries are rolling other debt is still going strong. Take a look.
iShares iBoxx Investment Grade Corporate Bond Fund, $LQD
The iShares iBoxx Investment Grade Corporate Bond Fund, $LQD, remains moving higher in an ascending wedge. From the 2008 low it has given up the steep 1/8 Gann Fan for the 1/4 and then the 1/2 but still has a long way to go before reaching the 45 degree 1/1 Fan. there is nothing there to suggest a stall in the money flow into investment grade bonds with the Measured move on the current leg at 125.
SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF, $JNK
The SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF, $JNK, looks even stronger. It also has given up the 1/8 and 1/2 Fan lines but is holding the trendline support and moving to all time highs. In fact a move over 40.60 carries a price target on a Measured Move higher to 43.60. If you are looking to invest in bonds the outlook is still bright, just don’t look at US Treasuries.
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The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.blog comments powered by Disqus
Gregory W. Harmon CMT, CFA, has traded since 1986 and held senior positions including Head of Global Trading, Head of Product Development, Head of Strategy and Director of Equity. (More)
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