SPY Trends and Influencers: Monthly Edition May into June 2014
- Posted by Greg Harmon
- on June 3rd, 2014
A monthly excerpt from the Premium subscriber version covering all 13 markets.
Last month in this space my Monthly Macro Review/Preview had the monthly outlook heading into May suggesting that Gold ($GLD) and Copper ($JJC) would continue in their consolidation zones with a bias lower for Gold and drift lower for Copper. Crude Oil ($USO) looked to continue to consolidate as well with a bias higher while Natural Gas ($UNG) looked good for more upside. The US Dollar Index ($UUP) looked weak and leaking lower while US Treasuries ($TLT) looked strong. The foreign markets were mixed again with the Shanghai Composite ($SSEC) continuing lower while Emerging Markets ($EEM) and the DAX ($DAX) consolidated with an upward bias. Volatility ($VIX) looked to remain in the lower range experienced in the last six months keeping the wind at the back of the equity markets. The Equity Index ETF’s $SPY, $IWM and $QQQ themselves were bouncing around and looked to continue that. The SPY looked the strongest and biased higher while the IWM and QQQ were consolidating with the QQQ’s looking a bit weak. How does an additional month impact the longer term picture? Let’s look at some charts.
As always you can see details of individual charts and more on my StockTwits feed and on chartly.)
The SPY continued higher toward the Upper Median Line of the bullish Andrew’s Pitchfork. The 20 month SMA is closing in on it but it is still extended from it with a RSI that is a bit technically overbought but bullish and not extreme, and a MACD that is rising and bullish. The 138.2% extension higher takes it to 199.88 and support lower is found at 176. Continued Upward Price Action.
The monthly outlook suggests that Gold and Copper will continue in their consolidations ranges with a downward bias for both. Crude Oil and Natural Gas look to be moving int he opposite way, consolidating but both with an upward bias. The US Dollar Index shows sign of continuing lower while US Treasuries continue to look strong. The Shanghai Composite continues to look weak while the Emerging Markets and the German DAX look strong and headed higher. Volatility looks to remain at anemic levels giving a wind to the backs of US Equity markets. The Equity Index ETF’s SPY, IWM and QQQ continue to be biased to the upside, but the SPY looks the strongest with the IWM and QQQ needing to work through consolidation zones. Use this information to understand the long term trends in Equities and their influencers as you prepare for the coming months.
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Gregory W. Harmon CMT, CFA, has traded since 1986 and held senior positions including Head of Global Trading, Head of Product Development, Head of Strategy and Director of Equity. (More)
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